Supermedia AGI/Youtrend: FI ‘stretches’ the gap on the League

The Italian political picture could be on the eve of the first truly great “shock“for a few years now. The conditional is a must, but the outcry that accompanied the release of Roberto Vannacci from the Lega – party of which he was deputy secretary, as well as MEP – to found a new entity called “National Future”, are certainly not random.

The photograph taken by us Supermedia of the polls, again this week, is that of a scenario characterized by great stability, but it could be the proverbial calm that precedes the storm. Brothers of Italy it is the leading political force (just under 30%) with the Democratic Party trailing by around 8 points. Compared to two weeks ago, the changes of all parties are, once again, minimal.

The most significant variation is the one concerning Forza Italia: the party of To Tajaniup by 0.3%, returns to almost 9% and above all sees its advantage over its League ally/competitor grow to almost one point (this hasn’t happened for about three months). Even more interestingly, it is a growth that mirrors the decline of Action: Calenda’s party is below 3% for the second consecutive week, and this may not be a coincidence, but rather an effect of what many observers have described as a clear rapprochement between Forza Italia and Action in recent times.

It’s not the first time Action falls below 3% (current threshold established by the electoral law for Parliament), but after European Championships in 2024 the party has never managed to go beyond 3.5%. If – as some hypothesize – Vannacci’s split were to induce the centre-right majority to modify the electoral law by raising the threshold to 4% (at least for non-coalited parties) for Calendar and its “third party” vocation could be a significant problem.

But the most direct effects of the birth of this new political “creature” led by Vannacci concern (obviously) the centre-right. All eyes are on the League, seen as the main electoral “pool” from which Futuro Nazionale could draw votes. But is it really like that? And how much is this new party worth which, according to those directly involved, will not become part of the government coalition?

The answers come from a Youtrend survey carried out in the days immediately preceding the announcement of Vannacci’s split, in which a scenario for voting intentions in the presence of a “Vannacci List” was also tested (the name and symbol of Futuro Nazionale had not yet been revealed). From this survey, we discover not only that 4.2% of Italians today would vote for a party led by the former general, but above all it becomes clear who these voters are today.