Putin is no longer the boss, now he is the grandfather. The Russian elite wants him less and less

According to her words, the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 shocked a large part of the civilian leadership, not only in the economic bloc of the government, but also in other ministries and state-owned companies. Nevertheless, these people remained in their positions and helped the Kremlin adapt the economy to the sanctions. The reason is not support for the war, but the feeling that they have no real way out.

“The private sector does not offer many comparable positions, and the transfer from the civil service must be approved by the FSB,” Prokopenko said. In addition, leaving also means a loss of social status: “One interlocutor told me that his phone went completely silent and he left his government job.” Many, he adds, stay because of fear for themselves or their employees.

Although hundreds of thousands of Russians opposed to the war went into exile, among them Prokopenko herself, most of the elite remained in the country. Western sanctions, paradoxically, helped Putin.

– The civilian elite felt unfairly punished because they had no influence on Putin anyway – he said. Sanctions caused anger towards the West among many, but also a kind of pride because they manage to maintain the Russian economy despite pressures. Europe was not a realistic option for many. Prokopenko reminded that in 2022, many Russians received notices from European banks that they had to close their accounts, which is why they returned the money to Russia, even though they do not trust the banking system there. “If it were possible for them to take money out of the country, many would do it. The outflow of capital would weaken the Russian economy, but for that the West would have to change its sanctions policy,” he emphasizes.

As far as the everyday life of the elite is concerned, the highest layers remain in Russia, especially those with access to state secrets. The rest travel to China or the countries of the Persian Gulf, and many have moved their families to Dubai. Although it is still possible to “live comfortably” in Moscow, the war is felt more and more. “The mobile internet is regularly disconnected, navigations do not work, it is not possible to pay with a mobile phone or call a taxi. These are serious restrictions,” said Prokopenko, adding that some things have become significantly more expensive and that anti-aircraft defense systems are appearing on buildings. “It is a worse and more insecure version of the former reality,” he said. One of the most interesting indicators of the changing attitude of the elite towards Putin is the way they talk about him. Before 2022, he was called “boss” in the room. Today, many call him “Grandfather”. “Before, they respected him and considered him a rational man acting in the interest of the state. When he gave the order for the invasion, they lost respect for him,” said Prokopenko.