Takaichi’s party starts this Sunday as a favorite in an election called to seek a supermajority

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of the Prime Minister of Japan, Sanae Takaichi, starts as a great favorite for the early elections called for this Sunday in the country, an appointment with the polls promoted by ultra-conservative politics, which seeks to gain a supermajority that will allow it to carry out a series of reforms that pave the way for what it has described as the new Japanese era.

Despite facing new opposition alliances and the loss of support from the traditional government partner, Komeito, Takaichi hopes that his high popularity will be enough to gain him the necessary support to facilitate the implementation of a series of budgetary and military measures.

With 42.3% of support, according to the latest voting intention surveys, his party goes to the polls as the main option for the Japanese, followed by the alliance created by Komeito and the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), which participated separately in the previous elections. This coalition, under the name of the Centrist Reformist Alliance, has 15.8% of the support.

Behind is the ultra-conservative and populist Sanseito, a Trumpist and nationalist party, with 6.1% of the support, followed by the conservative People’s Democratic Party (DPFP), the neoliberal Innovation Party (JIP), known as Ishin, and Mirai, which is committed to online democracy and was founded in 2025 by the science fiction writer Takahiro Anno.

At the back are the progressive Reiwa Shinsengumi – formed from members of the Liberal Party who opposed its merger with the DPFP -, the Conservative Party, the Communist Party of Japan and the Social Democratic Party.

Although Takaichi’s popularity has suffered in recent weeks, the prime minister continues to enjoy high popular support that could make her the great winner of these elections. His approval ratings, around 67%, remain high.

Its objective is to reach the long-awaited 261 to achieve a ‘stable absolute majority’ and advance its political agenda, which would allow it to control the 17 parliamentary committees of the Lower House of the Diet of Japan and have a majority in each of them. Regardless of the high fragmentation of the PLD, the polls suggest that, with the help of his recent partner, the Innovation Party, Takaichi will have an easier time obtaining this comfortable victory.

These surveys also suggest that the two parties could even gain a two-thirds majority, over 300 seats. This implies that the parties that make up the Centrist Reform Alliance could lose more than half of the seats they had before Takaichi called the elections.

ELECTION CAMPAIGN

After an electoral campaign marked by its short duration – the shortest since the Second World War – and heavy snowfalls, which have left more than thirty dead in the country, the population has had to face the delay in sending ballots for early voting.

With issues such as the high cost of living and growing militarism as main concerns, the idea of ​​​​Japan’s rearmament has been gaining ground as pressure from the United States grows and despite the fact that, clearly, it is not a priority for many Japanese, who were initially more concerned about economic and demographic issues.

However, the projections for the LDP have improved since Takaichi canceled his presence in a debate organized by the NHK network after suffering a hand injury. The president herself had indicated through social networks that the problem derived from having been shaking hands with “a large number of followers.”

“When I shake hands with so many enthusiastic followers, many pull on it, and I end up suffering some injury. I have symptoms of rheumatoid arthritis and my hand becomes swollen,” he said then, in statements that were harshly criticized by the opposition.

THE CONSTITUTIONAL QUESTION

In the event of a comfortable victory, the new Japanese Government is expected to commit to reforming the Constitution, an issue for which there seems to be no consensus among the population at the moment, but with which Takaichi seeks to follow in the footsteps of conservative predecessors such as Shinzo Abe.

This would put an end to the country’s pacifist era, which began immediately after World War II, when Tokyo “forever” renounced war as a “sovereign right” and significantly limited the movements of its troops.

To carry out the reform it is necessary to have the support of two thirds in the House of Representatives – which means the favorable vote of 310 deputies out of a total of 465 -, in addition to the endorsement of the majority of the population in a national referendum held afterwards.

In one of his speeches before calling these elections, Takaichi already defended the need to do so “at this precise moment”, considering that he must have sufficient approval to promote fundamental reforms for the future of Japan.