The death toll soars: a heavy blow to Russia on the battlefield

Last month, Russia suffered a severe and unusual blow on the battlefield in Ukraine, after the number of its losses increased by about 9,000 more soldiers than it was able to recruit and replace at the front, according to a Bloomberg report based on estimates by Western sources. This figure marks a success for Ukraine, which is trying to weigh down the price that Moscow is paying on the front.

According to the report, Russian forces failed to make any significant gains in January, despite suffering heavy casualties. This assessment may reinforce Kiev’s goal of raising the military price for the Kremlin, almost four years since the war began. Just today, NATO Secretary General Mark Ruta said: “The Russian army is recording only gradual gains, but suffering heavy losses. This teaches us that Ukraine manages to survive the war.”

Last December, the number of Russian soldiers killed in battles jumped to 35,000. This number is approximately twice as high as the monthly average calculated by NATO in 2025. According to the same Western sources, in December Russia’s losses were almost equal to the volume of its monthly recruitment, while in January a gap had already emerged to the detriment of Moscow.

The Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Mykhailo Fedorov, presented a strategy according to which Kiev will try to increase the number of Russian casualties to 50,000 per month by the summer. In Ukraine’s view, such a level would make it difficult for President Vladimir Putin to replace the forces without having to carry out a large-scale mobilization.

Ukraine’s army chief Oleksandr Sirsky said last week that the situation along the 1,200-kilometer front line remains difficult, and that Russian forces continue to attack along the entire line of contact, from the Donbas region in the east to the mouth of the Dnieper River in the south.

However, Russian progress is described as particularly slow and abrasive. According to data from the DeepState mapping service, which works in collaboration with the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russia’s territorial gains in the last three years amount to less than 1 percent of Ukraine’s territory.

Sirsky added that although it seems that Russia has managed to meet its recruitment goals and even exceed them, the number of Russian soldiers at the front has remained stable for six months – and stands at up to 712,000 soldiers, which teaches about its heavy losses. The increase in casualties casts doubt on the narrative promoted by the Kremlin and sometimes echoed by the Trump administration, according to which Russia’s advantage on the ground makes its victory inevitable.

According to estimates by Western officials, at the current rate, it will take two more years for the Russian forces to complete the full occupation of the Donetsk region, a region that now has 60-70% of its territory occupied by Russia. Putin is demanding full control of neighboring Donetsk and Luhansk (where Russia controls nearly 100% of the territory) as part of future peace talks.

However, Putin is expected to avoid further large-scale recruitment, a move that has proven particularly unpopular within Russia. He avoided repeating the move he made in September 2022, when 300,000 reservists were recruited, a move that led to hundreds of thousands leaving the country and increasing public dissatisfaction with the war.

Western officials attribute the recent increase in Russian casualties and Ukraine’s lethality to advances in its drone operation capabilities, a move that increases pressure on Russian forces on the frontline. In addition to increasing Ukraine’s ability to harm Russian soldiers on the front in this way, it also makes it very difficult for Russia’s shell and supply forces, thus preventing access of food, fuel, ammunition and especially medical equipment. Because of this, even injuries that are not considered particularly serious at the initial stage – sometimes become irreversible damage due to the threat of Ukrainian UAVs on the Russian front.