Iran is on the brink of a historic decision: the battle for the day after has already begun

A deep economic crisis and a banking system on the verge of collapse

Years of politically oriented credit and accelerated expansion of private banks led to an acute banking crisis. Ayanda Bank collapsed, and according to the criteria of the Iranian Central Bank itself – only nine banks in the country are not considered insolvent. The pressure also reached the Spaa Bank, which pays the salaries of the army – an institution that itself was established from the merger of military banks to prevent a systemic collapse.

The economic crisis is well felt on a daily basis. In 2024, at least one province had to disable activity for 72 out of 291 working days due to a lack of gas in the winter and electricity in the summer. A survey by the Iranian Chamber of Commerce among more than 3,000 businesses revealed that in the fall of 2025 the companies were operating at only 39% of their output. Cumulatively, the data indicate that even before the national uprising in January 2026, Iran bore the characteristics of a war-torn country.

Pessimistic scenarios: chaos, disintegration or renewed dictatorship

Since the middle of the previous decade, and even more so after the civil wars in Syria and Lebanon, the discourse surrounding post-regime Iran has focused on horror scenarios.

Transition plan: The first 100 days

In response to concerns, the Iran Prosperity Project developed a comprehensive policy framework for the day after. Policy documents deal with governance, energy, foreign policy, health, industry and macroeconomic stabilization. The summer 2025 version of the “Emergency Period Guide” includes 15 chapters and focuses on the first 100-180 days after the fall of the regime.

Supporters of the plan define it as the only structured opposition plan for the immediate post-collapse period, formulated by a team of 26 experts with the assistance of additional consultants from inside Iran and abroad.

At the same time, control of ports, customs terminals and transportation routes will be critical to prevent disruptions. The guide emphasizes restoration and protection of vital systems – food production, health, water and electricity – from day one. In the area of ​​infrastructure, the plan calls for securing energy, oil and gas facilities, water systems and power plants using screened military units to deter sabotage.

A companion initiative called National Cooperation, launched in July 2025, invited civil servants and security personnel to express a willingness to cooperate with a future transition. In August, Raza Pahlavi stated that about 50,000 people responded – out of an army estimated at about 640,000 soldiers.

Financing the transition: frozen assets and sanctions relief

The draft Iranian budget for the year starting on March 21 is about 25 billion dollars – about 2 billion dollars per month to operate the current system. Sanctions have frozen significant assets abroad and limited debt raising. Estimates speak of the possibility of recovering between 100 and 200 billion dollars from Iranian assets – an amount equal to two to seven years of oil revenues.

Pessimism or optimism?

All these measures refer to the emergency phase. If the gloomy scenarios do not materialize, the stabilization phase may bring back thousands of Iranian entrepreneurs and professionals. With at least nine million citizens in the diaspora, the diaspora constitutes a significant reservoir of capital and knowledge. The future remains uncertain and depends on internal dynamics and external actors. However, one variable, the plan’s supporters claim, is mainly in the hands of the Iranians themselves: national cohesion.