Hormuz’s weapon with China and Russia

A few numbers help to understand why a closure of the Strait would be an effective retaliation, even if particularly costly for Iranian economic survival itself. We are talking about a passage just fifty kilometers wide, which connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, and which therefore can be easily controlled, completely preventing transit. It would mean stop 30% of oil moving by seawhich is worth a fifth of the oil produced globally. But not only that. Because approximately 20% of LNG shipments take the same route, the liquefied gas which especially since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, with the consequent substantial stop to the export of Russian gas, has become a fundamental resource especially for Western countries, obviously including Italy.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz should be considered as an extreme movedesperate, but to be taken into account if one thinks of a prolonged conflict. This is precisely the hypothesis that is driving the oil markets at the moment. In recent minutes, Brent has risen to around 71.30 dollars a barrel, close to the record price since the beginning of the year of 71.89 dollars a barrel. Also fueling the fears that are spreading are some advances from Axios reporting Donald Trump’s intention to carry out a “massive” military campaign against Iran, which would last a few weeks and “would resemble a full-blown war”.

Oil is also one of the main binding factors Russia and China to Iran. And the joint naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, despite the declared objective being to ‘strengthen maritime security and cooperation between the respective navies’, serve precisely to send a signal to the United States. The mere presence of Russian and Chinese warships in the area significantly complicates the situation, which becomes extremely delicate due to the risk of accidents which, in the event of a conflict, can automatically widen it. For this reason, American plans must necessarily take it into account. On the one hand, to avoid directly involving Russia and China in a war. On the other, because Iran’s ability to react increases, with oil blackmail in the foreground. (From Fabio Insenga)