Towards a difficult war in the heart of Europe? NATO’s quiet revolution

The Trump administration is promoting a large-scale move to change the nature of the NATO alliance’s activities, in order to broadly reduce its international activities and return it to focus more narrowly on the security of Europe and the Euro-Atlantic region, Politico reported today (Thursday). The series of moves that are taking place in relative silence dramatically symbolizes the trend of reducing the involvement of the US military in events and conflicts around the world.

According to the report, Washington is pressing to end a series of initiatives that are defined as activities outside the alliance’s core region, including the end of NATO’s main mission in Iraq. In addition, the United States has worked in recent months to reduce the activities of the peacekeeping force in Kosovo and to prevent Ukraine and partners from the Indo-Pacific region from officially participating in the annual NATO summit that will be held in July in Ankara.

The move reflects a clear line of the White House to see NATO as a Euro-Atlantic defense alliance only, and to roll back decades of expansion of activity into the fields of crisis management, global partnerships and initiatives based on values ​​around the world. According to a series of diplomatic sources, within NATO the move is already being called “return to factory settings”.

As part of this American push, NATO will reduce activities that are defined outside the alliance’s main area of ​​operation, that is, beyond the basic tasks of defense and deterrence. If the move is implemented, it may lead to a rapid reduction of activity in areas that were previously war zones, and even to the exclusion of capitals such as Kiev, Canberra and Tokyo from official discussions this summer.

NATO is operating an advisory mission in Iraq that aims to strengthen the country’s security institutions, including the police, and prevent the return of the ISIS organization. The mission was established during Trump’s first term in office in 2018 and has been expanded several times since 2021 at Baghdad’s request.

The US has asked the allies to end the mission as early as this September. At the same time, Washington is expected to withdraw about 2,500 American soldiers from Iraq as part of a 2024 agreement with the Iraqi government. An American source told Politico that this is part of Trump’s commitment to end “eternal wars”, and emphasized that the move is being carried out in close coordination with the Iraqis.

Tamer Badawi, an Iraq expert and fellow at a German research institute, said that the NATO mission itself is not critical to the country’s security. However, according to him, canceling it at the same time as the American withdrawal could strengthen militias and lead to instability, especially in the Kurdistan Regional Government in the north of the country.

Even within the covenant itself there are reservations. One of the diplomats said that this is not the moment to leave Iraq, especially since the local government is interested in continuing the presence. Another diplomat noted that most countries believe that the mission should be reduced, but over a longer period of time and while maintaining a limited presence.

According to the four diplomats who spoke to Politico, the US has signaled that it is also interested in reducing the NATO-led Kosovo Force, known as KFOR. It is a peacekeeping mission approved by the United Nations and has been operating since 1999, and currently includes about 4,500 soldiers.

The move is of particular concern to European countries. Angelosha Morena, a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said the mission remains vital to regional security. According to her, a NATO withdrawal could encourage Serb separatists in northern Kosovo and create a similar effect among ethnic Serbs in the Republika Srpska region of Bosnia.

Another senior diplomat in NATO said that there is concern about the move, because in the Western Balkans the situation could quickly escalate. NATO’s KFOR peacekeeping force in Kosovo is considered the most important restraining factor in the region, and what prevents Serbia from taking military action against the small country in which many ethnic Serbs live. Escalation and fighting between Serbia and Kosovo could ignite a huge war in Central Europe, with a direct connection to Russia as well which would surely encourage tensions.

A NATO official told Politico that there are no timetables for the end of the mission in Iraq or the KFOR force, and emphasized that each mission is periodically reviewed and adapted to the circumstances. Currently, no decision has been made to end any of the activities, and all 32 members of the alliance must approve the start or end of a mission.

The American effort also includes pressure not to invite Ukraine and NATO’s four official partners in the Indo-Pacific region – Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea – to participate in the official discussions at the July summit in Ankara. According to the diplomats, they may be invited to side events, and the move is officially explained, among other things, as a desire to reduce the number of meetings.

Oana Longescu, a former NATO spokeswoman and now a senior fellow in London, said that leaving partner countries out of the official discussions would convey that the focus is on the core issues of NATO.

In addition, this year it was decided not to hold the public forum that usually accompanies the annual summit and includes leaders, security experts and government representatives. Instead, a defense industries forum will be held on the sidelines of the summit in Ankara. NATO explained that the decision was intended to save costs due to a lack of resources, but two diplomats estimated that there may be an indirect effect here as well of the American pressure to reduce funding to international organizations.

According to one of the diplomats, at a time when the alliance is trying to convince the public of the importance of its activities and of increasing the defense budgets, reducing public activity is a harmful move. According to him, NATO must explain what is happening and what it intends to do.