Agreement or war? The United States and Iran begin crucial talks in Geneva today to avoid a conflict

President Donald Trump, in his State of the Union address on Tuesday, said he preferred to resolve the impasse with Iran through diplomacy. But he added: “I will never allow the main sponsor of terrorism in the world, who they are for a long timehave a nuclear weapon; “We cannot allow that to happen.”

Iran, however, has said that will never completely renounce nuclear enrichment. “Our fundamental convictions are crystal clear: Iran will, under no circumstances, ever develop a nuclear weapon; nor will we Iranians ever give up our right to reap the benefits of peaceful nuclear technology for our people,” said Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchiin a publication on social networks.

Iran’s proposal was designed to keep some level of enrichment and, at the same time, allow Trump victory declaration. Four Iranian officials who were not authorized to speak publicly said Iran would offer a suspension of nuclear activity and uranium enrichment for a period of three to five years. After that, the country would join a regional nuclear consortium maintaining a very low level of enrichment, 1.5%, for medical research.

I would also offer dilute in phases the 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium which it still retains, while allowing access to inspectors from the United Nations atomic agency to supervise all steps and monitor compliance.

Araghchi, leading his country’s negotiating team, and US special envoy Steve Witkoff, along with Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, will hold meetings mediated by Oman. This will be the third round of talks since negotiations resumed this month, after Trump’s threat to intervene militarily amid an uprising in Iran against the government in January. Iran cracked down with lethal force, killing at least 7,000 protesters, according to human rights groups.

In the talks, Iran must convince the Americans that has no intention of militarizing its nuclear program and also give Trump enough leeway to claim that achieved more than any of his predecessors achieved when dealing with Iran.

The US, in turn, has to incentivize Iran with some tangible rewardssuch as eliminating both the threat of war and economic sanctions on international banking and Iran’s oil sales, which have contributed to the near collapse of its economy.

Iranian officials have also said publicly that their proposal to the United States will include the promise to buy American productssuch as passenger planes, and an invitation to American companies to Invest in Iran’s energy, oil and gas industriesas well as gaining access to mines with minerals such as lithium.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had banned entry of American companies in the first deal but has now granted permission, Iranian officials said.

“Great economic cooperation between Iran and the US could work as a catalyst to build trust,” Hossein Mousavian, a former senior diplomat and spokesman for Iran’s 2015 nuclear negotiating team, said in an interview.

He Iran’s missile program specifically the range of its ballistic missiles, which, at 2,000 kilometers, can reach Israel and all US bases in the region, and its support for militant groups in the area, are not currently on the table.

“Iran refuses—refuses—to talk about ballistic missiles, with us or anyone else, and that’s a big problem“U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on Wednesday. He said that eventually Iran and the U.S. will need to have talks beyond the nuclear program.

In 2018, during his first term, Trump fulfilled a campaign promise and Withdrew the United States from an Iran nuclear deal and world powers reached during President Barack Obama’s term in 2015.

Under the agreement, called Joint Comprehensive Action Planthe enrichment of Iran limited itself to 3.5%a civilian grade, and sent its stockpile of enriched uranium to Russia. The UN International Atomic Energy Agency and US intelligence agencies determined that Iran was in full compliance with the agreement.

Trump imposed tough economic sanctions on Iran, targeting its oil sales and blocking its international banking transactions. The European countries that were part of the agreement, France, Great Britain and Germany, They complied with US sanctions. Those efforts effectively left Iran with little or no rewards under the deal.

Iran gradually increased its enrichment from 3.5% to 60%which is close to 90% of military grader, and accumulated a stockpile of highly enriched uranium enough to be able to build several nuclear bombs if it decided to do so, with a breakup time of several weeks, according to Rafael Grossi, head of the UN atomic agency. Iran has maintained that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.

In June, Iran and the United States were deep in negotiations when Israel launched a surprise attack against Iran, starting a 12 day war. It culminated with the US dropping bunker buster bombs on the three Iran’s main nuclear facilities, significantly damaging structures and effectively stopping Iran’s nuclear program.

Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium is believed to be is buried under the rubble from one of the nuclear sites, according to Iranian and American officials.

In recent weeks, the United States has established a massive military presence throughout the Middle East and near Iran’s borders, positioning itself in case Trump orders military strikes against the country. The United States has also strengthened defenses at its military bases in the region and deployed a Navy warship off the coast of Israel to help against possible Iranian retaliation.

Es the largest US military deployment in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Trump is considering various military options if talks fail, according to US officials, including an initial strike that would be limited to military targets, sustained and more widespread attacks on Iran’s nuclear and missile facilities, and creating conditions on the ground for Khamenei’s removal.

Iran has promised retaliate immediately and said it would attack all US bases and facilities in the region and Israel with a barrage of ballistic missiles. Khamenei warned that Iran would try to sink American warships.

Analysts and senior US military figures, such as retired General David Petraeus, who commanded US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan and served as director of the CIA, have warned that The war with Iran could be long and destructivecould cause harm to US soldiers and would deplete US military resources.

So all eyes are on Geneva, throughout the region and beyond.

“This It’s going to be the decisive round; If Iran doesn’t show enough willingness to give in and the US doesn’t show willingness to provide enough sanctions relief, things are going to explode,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House. “They’re going to put all your cards on the table on Thursday.”