Against an attack in Iran: the difficult survey and the alarming move of China

Most American citizens do not trust President Donald Trump to make good decisions regarding a military conflict with Iran, according to a survey published today (Thursday) by the Associated Press. The survey indicates that the majority of the American public does not place much trust in the judgment of President Donald Trump when it comes to the use of military force, against the background of tensions with Iran and the possibility of an American attack.

The survey was conducted between February 19 and 23, at a time when tensions with Iran are reaching a peak and against the background of the largest buildup of power by the US military since the invasion of Iraq in 2003. The data shows that although many in the US see the Iranian nuclear program as a threat, at the same time they express reservations about the way Trump might behave in the international arena.

About half of the adults in the US (48%) said that they are very or to a great extent worried that Iran’s nuclear program is a direct threat to their country. About 30% are moderately worried and only about 20% said that they are a little worried or not at all worried. At the same time, 61% of Americans define Iran as an enemy of the USA, a slight increase compared to a similar survey conducted in 2023.

However, when asked about their level of trust in Trump’s judgment on issues such as the use of military force, relations with adversaries and the use of nuclear weapons, only about three in ten said they had a lot of trust or some trust in the president. More than half answered that they trust him only a little or don’t trust him at all.

The political differences are clear: about six out of ten Republicans express high trust in Trump on these issues, while nine out of ten Democrats express low trust in him. Even within the Republican camp there are reservations: young Republicans under the age of 45 are less confident in Trump’s ability to make the right decisions regarding the use of military force than older Republicans.

There are also gaps between the generations in the level of concern about the Iranian nuclear program. Only about a third of Americans under 45 said they were very or somewhat concerned about the threat, compared to about six in 10 among those 45 and older. In addition, only about half of young people see Iran as an enemy, compared to about seven out of ten among older people.

The survey was based on a sample of 1,133 graduates and was conducted using a panel AmeriSpeakwhich is intended to represent the US population. The maximum sampling error is four percentage points either way.

Domestic American public opinion is not Trump’s only concern regarding a possible attack on Iran. According to a report published tonight in Politico, officials in Washington express the fear that such an attack would have major consequences that would help China advance in aggressive military action in Taiwan, and catch the United States off guard.

According to the report, American officials fear that an attack on Iran will lead to a wide campaign – which will lead to the erosion and depletion of the US military’s ammunition, with an emphasis on interceptor missiles of air defense systems. Against the background of these things, there is growing concern that in such a scenario China will take advantage of the US’s weakness and move forward to carry out a military move in Taiwan.

The negative public opinion data from Trump’s point of view regarding a possible attack on Iran comes less than a year before the midterm elections in the US. The Republican Party is approaching the elections in a problematic situation, with fears of losing the majority in the House of Representatives and possibly also in the Senate.