Khamenei’s succession, because there is a risk of a power vacuum

In case of death of the Supreme Leaderthe Iranian Constitution (in article 111) establishes that a board made up of three people – il presidentil head of the judiciary and a member of the Council of Guardiansselected by Discernment Council – temporarily assumes all its functions, until appointment of the new leader.

According to the law, the new Supreme Leader must be chosen byAssembly of Expertsorganism composed of 88 senior members of the clergy elected every eight years through national elections; in elections, the Council of Guardians – and intransigent control body aligned to Khamenei – screens all candidates. In the last ones 2024 electionsi loyalists of the Supreme Leader they won all the seats.

The interim council

After taking office interim councill’Assembly of Experts must nominate a new leader “as quickly as possible”, but the law does not provide one specific deadline. If no candidate reaches the two-thirds majorityil interim council could, in theory, govern indefinitely.

It seems, however, that in Israeli and US raids of today also ended up in the crosshairs President Massoud Pezeshkian and the head of the magistracy Gholam-Hossein Mohseni Ejeitwo of the three possible members of the council responsible for governing ad interim. If both were dead, a conflict would be created institutional void capable of compromising the immediate ability of the leaders of the Islamic Republic to act.