Ayatollah is dead, now there is chaos! Expert: ‘Iran is no longer the same, what comes next can be dangerous’

Khamenei based his political position on religious authority and the belief that he acts as “God’s representative on Earth”. It was precisely this ideological dimension that made his rule almost untouchable within the Iranian system. Although in his youth he considered himself a poet and wrote poetry, his views on the role of women and social freedoms remained extremely conservative, often accompanied by statements that provoked condemnation from the international public.

Foreign policy analyst Denis Avdagi; assesses that the American-Israeli attack was expected considering the accumulation of American military capacities in the region, including the presence of the navy and air force, and the absence of concrete progress in the negotiations between Washington and Tehran. According to his words,

Khamenei was killed during a meeting where, most likely, a possible Iranian offer was discussed in the context of negotiations with the USA.

But the situation is further complicated by the fact that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and American President Donald Trump have clearly emphasized that the ultimate goal is regime change in Tehran. Avdagić emphasizes that the nuclear program and ballistic capabilities could be negotiated, but that the topic of the change of power is unacceptable for the Iranian regime. In this context, the attack cannot be interpreted only as a military operation, but also as an attempt to strategically reshape the region.

Venezuela as an example

The analyst draws a parallel with Venezuela, where, despite due to American pressure, the political system survived, but with adaptation to the energy and economic interests of the USA. Iran and Venezuela are important suppliers of oil to China, and the energy aspect of the conflict has global consequences. Closing or jeopardizing navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant part of the world’s oil passes, further destabilizes the market. Combined with US-China trade tensions and Beijing’s dependence on energy products, it is clear that this is a broader geopolitical conflict.

According to available information, Israel was targeted at the top of the command structure, while the American attacks targeted primarily military capabilities. In one of the attacks, a school for girls was also hit. Although the wordč about a severe humanitarian tragedy, the international reaction has so far remained limited, while the focus of the global public has shifted to the strategic consequences.

The death of the Ayatollah represents a strong symbolic and political blow to Iran. For years, the regime built a narrative about its own strength, resilience and ability to oppose the US and Israel. The loss of the supreme leader collapses the perception of invincibility and opens up space for internal uncertainty. The population, which listened to messages about Iranian supremacy and Western weakness, is now faced with the reality of military and political defeat.

Avdagić believes that Iran will never be the same again, but neither will the international order. The events have reconfirmed the ability of the USA to act globally, while the reactions of Russia and China are so far limited to political condemnations and diplomatic moves. Although both powers have significant military capabilities, including a nuclear arsenal, an open confrontation with the USA carries enormous risks.

However, the Iranian political system is structured so that it does not depend exclusively on one person. The assembly of experts has the power to elect a new supreme leader. The choice of successor will be a key signal of the direction the country will take. A more moderate candidate could open up space for limited negotiations, while the continuation of a hard line would mean a deepening of the conflict. The question is who will succeed him.

Looking for a successor

– It is difficult to say at this moment. It is important which names will come out and that will send a certain message. If it is someone from the socio-religious life who belongs to moderate cadres, it is an attempt to send a message to America that they are willing to talk to others. If it is someone who is the face and left behind of the current Ayatollah, it will be a reversed message. It is known how to get to office and it is a huge country with hundreds of people who can come into consideration – said the expert.

In the meantime, world markets are waiting for the first reactions. The opening of stock exchanges and the movement of oil prices will be a clear indicator of the extent of the crisis. Any significant increase in energy prices will have a direct impact on economies around the world, including European countries. The geopolitical crisis thus moves into the economic dimension, and the consequences will be felt by those who are far from the battlefield.