“Fratricide”: The mullahs don’t want to go down alone

Iran’s attacks on its neighbors in the Gulf are not limited to US military baseseven if that is the Iranian foreign minister Abbas Aragchi denies: “We are targeting the US presence in these countries.” The countries must address “complaints” to the “decision makers of this war” – the USA and Israel, according to Iran’s narrative. The UAE – which has intercepted over 540 drones and 165 ballistic missiles as of Sunday – Kuwait, Qatar, which has the largest US base in the Middle East with 10,000 troops, Iraq and Jordan, all provide air bases for the US.

Some of the damage can be attributed to debris falling from intercepted Iranian missiles. But not all: The number of attacks on airports in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates suggests more than just a coincidence. In Train it was a power plant, in Saudi Arabia an oil plant.

Gulf states in a dilemma

The Gulf states have condemned the attacks, have so far not retaliated, only repelled them, and responded diplomatically – by summoning the ambassadors to Iran and closing the embassies. They know about the escalation that would result from entering the war.

At the same time, in order not to lose legitimacy and strength vis-à-vis their population, the authoritarian states must at some point fire back if attacks continue. Especially if the Iranian attacks continue Infrastructure target. The biggest concern is their own power grids, seawater desalination plants and energy infrastructure. Without air conditioning and drinking water, the scorching Gulf states are virtually uninhabitable.

Despite Iran’s relative size and military strength in the region, the radical Islamist mullahs’ regime enjoys not very popular in the neighboring states. The threat of war with Israel and the USA was seen as a powder keg stability and investments throughout the region are at risk. None of the Gulf states want war – even at the risk of being seen as a war in the eyes of Iran and the world Allies of Israel and the USA be perceived. On the other hand, Iran’s hope that the Gulf states would see the escalation as a war instigated by the USA and Israel, into which they were drawn and would side with Iran, is unlikely to come true.

Sunnis versus Shiites

The fronts also have a religious component: Sunnis versus Shiites. The Muslim currents accuse each other of following the illegitimate successors of Muhammad and of misinterpreting the Koran. Around 80 percent of Muslims worldwide are Sunnis, while Shiites make up around 10 percent. The vast majority of Muslims in the Middle East identify as Sunni, and many countries have a Shiite minority. After Tod Ali Khameneis Shiites went in Bagdad on the street, in cashmere There were riots near the US embassies, including fatalities.

Especially with the Sunni one Saudi Arabiawhich is battling Shiite Iran for leadership in the Muslim world, the mullahs’ regime has waged proxy wars for years – in Yemen on the side of the Houthis against the Yemeni government, in Syria during dis Assad rule and in the Iraq-Iran War. In Saudi Arabia the dominates Wahhabism, a strictly conservative and extremely anti-Shiite branch of Sunni Islam.

The fact that the Saudis, with US mediation, have been working on normalizing relations with Israel since 2020 was a thorn in the side of the leadership in Tehran. Shortly before an agreement, however in October 2023 The Islamist Hamas, which is also supported by Iran, attacked Israel an.

In the mini kingdom Bahrain The majority of the population is Shiite, while Sunnis hold political power. The government has repeatedly accused Iran of financing insurgents in the country. The mullahs’ regime has long laid claim to Bahrain. Bahrain protects itself through the military basewhich it makes available to the USA: the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet. A drone hit its building complex on Saturday.

Monica Marks, professor of Middle East politics at New York University Abu Dhabi, speaks opposite Al Jazeera of a “fratricide” that a cornered Iranian regime would prefer to suicide: taking its Gulf neighbors hostage rather than accepting defeat. The “accidental”, “accidental” shelling of the Gulf states: It is a threat to plunge the entire region into chaos if the mullahs in Iran fall.