Insider trading? Punters pocket more than $500 million betting on US attack in Iran on Polymarket

A conflict which, for some, turns into an opportunity for profit. Prediction markets platform Polymarket is under fire for allowing betting on the US attack on Iran and the eventual downfall of the now deceased Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

As the platform shows, a total of 529 million dollars (or 452 million euros) were won by bettors who bet on the date of Saturday as being that of the first American strikes in Iran.

Among these bettors, a certain account entitled “Magamyman”, which bet $87,000 on an American strike to come on Saturday, “71 minutes before the information was made public”, underlines the elected Democrat Mike Levin. This account ultimately earned $515,000 thanks to its bet.

Two other contracts, which relied on the fall of Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei, are expected to win a total of more than 160 million dollars (or 136 million euros) for certain bettors – but they are the subject of disputes, according to the Reuters agency.

Suspicious investments

In principle, sites like Polymarket offer users the opportunity to bet on the prediction of political, sporting or geopolitical events. Very popular in the United States, they are not authorized in France.

On X, the analysis company Bubblemaps, which investigates the blockchain, even suspects six accounts of insider trading, having pocketed $1.2 million by betting on an American strike in Iran. Most of the wallets of these mysterious bettors were funded shortly before Saturday’s attack, “bet specifically on the date February 28”, and bet a few hours before the US attack.

Another company, called Polysights, also identified “suspicious wallets” that were betting heavily on the fall of Ali Khamenei before March 31 starting in mid-January.

“We need transparency”

These betting topics were strongly criticized by Democratic US Senator Chris Murphy. “It’s absurd that it’s legal… I’m going to table a bill as quickly as possible to ban this,” he declared on X.

“As a reminder, Donald Trump Jr. sits on the Polymarket advisory board and his company invested tens of millions of dollars in the platform last year. Both the Justice Department and the CFTC had conducted investigations into Polymarket, which were dropped after Trump took office. Prediction markets cannot be used to profit from prior knowledge of military actions. We need answers, transparency and control,” added Mike Levin, on the same social network.

This is not the first time that Internet users have enriched themselves on current geopolitical subjects and the decisions taken by American President Donald Trump. At the beginning of January, another mysterious account had pocketed $430,000 in winnings by betting on the fall of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro before January 31, captured by American forces.

In France, the National Gaming Authority warned on Tuesday against the addictive nature of prediction market platforms, noting that “the success of prediction market platforms (was) increasing, particularly since the 2024 American presidential election”.

Between January and October 2025, cumulative transaction volumes on the world’s leading platforms exceeded $27.9 billion (€23.7 billion), according to ANJ. Their cumulative revenues are estimated at $2 billion (1.70 billion euros) by a Citizens study, she added.