Patriot air defense network in the Middle East faces the risk of ‘white pedestal’

Bloomberg On March 3, citing well-informed sources, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is having to ask its allies for help in defending against medium-range threats, while Qatar is asking for help in intercepting unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and considers them a bigger threat than missiles from Iran.

Bloomberg also cited an internal analysis by Qatari officials showing that the country’s stockpile of Patriot air defense missiles could be depleted within 4 days if they continue to fire at the current frequency.

Just three days after the outbreak, the Middle East conflict has turned into a war of attrition, in which the outcome depends on which side runs out of ammunition first.

“The United States has intercepted hundreds of ballistic missiles aimed at our forces, as well as our partners and stability in the region,” Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine announced on March 2.

Successful interceptions require the consumption of expensive, high-tech missiles that are already in short supply. Combat experience from the Ukrainian battlefield shows that the defending side often has to launch 2-4 Patriot missiles to ensure successful interception of an enemy ballistic missile, according to Serhii Beskrestnov, advisor to the Ukrainian Defense Minister.

Statistics from the US military and Gulf countries show that since February 28, Iran has launched about 771 ballistic missiles at targets in 9 Middle Eastern countries. Before the conflict broke out, Israeli intelligence estimated that Tehran possessed about 2,500 ballistic missiles. This shows that Tehran still retains modern missiles with greater destructive power for use in prolonged conflicts.

The number of Iranian missiles is more than the total number of interceptors from Washington and Tel Aviv combined. “The US and its partners are facing the risk of running out of anti-aircraft ammunition before Iran runs out of missiles, although this is far from being truly certain,” warned Kelly Grieco, an expert at the Stimson Center research center.

To minimize damage from Iran’s missile attack, the US and Israel are seeking to destroy the launchers before they fire. The Israeli army said on March 1 that since the June 2025 raid, it has destroyed about 200 and disabled dozens of Iranian ballistic missile launchers, accounting for about half of the launchers in this country’s payroll.

“This is a race between US and Israeli attacks and Iranian ballistic missile launchers,” Ms. Grieco said.

In addition to ballistic missiles, Iran also puts pressure on the defense systems of the US and its allies with long-range UAV raids. In the past 4 days, the country has fired about 906 suicide UAVs, most of them Shahed-136 series.

The UAE said the Patriot complex was highly effective in its mission to intercept the Shahed-136 UAV. However, using missiles worth more than $4 million to intercept a UAV with an estimated cost of $20,000-30,000 shows the problem that has haunted Western military planners since the beginning of the Ukraine conflict, which is that cheap weapons can deplete resources needed to deal with a more complex threat.

The US and its allies and partners in the region mainly use the Patriot air defense system with PAC-3 ammunition. If at least two PAC-3 shells are needed to deal with a ballistic missile target and one to intercept each UAV, they have launched a minimum of 2,448 missiles from the Patriot system in the past 4 days.

If Iran continues to maintain the current intensity of attacks, the PAC-3 missile stockpile in the Middle East could be depleted to dangerous levels in just a few days.

“Iran and the US can both run out of weapons within a few days or weeks. Whoever holds out longer will gain a significant advantage,” said expert Grieco.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE also use the US Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system to intercept more advanced ballistic missiles. However, THAAD cannot fight conventional targets, and their missiles are also significantly more expensive than Patriot with a price of up to 12 million USD each.

In addition to high costs, the ability to offset missile stockpiles is also a headache for the US and its allies. PAC-3 missiles are only produced at the US Lockheed Martin factory, but the corporation only ships a total of 620 in 2025.

The Pentagon has pushed to increase production, but Lockheed Martin estimates it needs 15.5 months to deliver 800 PAC-3 missiles to partners.

Meanwhile, Washington is unlikely to send enough Patriot ammunition to the Middle East to maintain the campaign for 4-5 weeks as President Donald Trump estimates, leading to the risk of some batteries falling into a “empty state”, with no missiles left to fight, according to sources familiar with the issue.

According to Joe Costa, defense program director at the Atlantic Council, a prolonged conflict with Iran would deplete the stockpile of air defense missiles that the United States desperately needs to defend against near-peer adversaries, as well as for other global priorities.

Costa believes that the level of anti-aircraft ammunition consumption by the US and its Middle Eastern allies depends largely on the effectiveness of campaigns to hunt and neutralize Iran’s missile and UAV launching capabilities.

“War of attrition makes practical sense from Iran’s perspective. They calculate that the defender will run out of interceptor missiles and the will of the Gulf countries will waver, putting pressure on the US and Israel to stop the campaign before Iran runs out of missiles and UAVs,” said Ms. Grieco.