Mysterious figure: Moshtaba Khamenei emerges as the next leader of Iran

When he was 10 years old, Mushtaba Khamenei saw the Islamic revolution take over the country and his father, Ali Khamenei, was appointed to a key position in the new and extreme regime in the country. 47 years later, he is expected to become Iran’s next supreme leader – despite spending most of his life out of the public spotlight and working behind the scenes in his father’s regime.

According to the report in the New York Times, Moshetaba emerged as the leading candidate to succeed his father during the convening of the Council of Experts authorized to choose the next Supreme Leader of Iran, against two weaker candidates. According to the report, the council considered announcing the selection this morning, but encountered internal objections for fear that such an announcement would make him a target for the US and Israel. In Iran International, which is affiliated with the opposition, it was reported that Moshetaba had already been chosen for the position by the council, and the decision is expected to be announced after the burial of Ali Khamenei.

According to the report in Iran International, the selection of Moshetaba came as a result of heavy pressure from the Revolutionary Guards. This is not surprising – Moshavta has deep ties with the military arm of the regime, as well as with the Basij. Through these two bodies, he helped his father brutally suppress the protests against the regime in the country in 2009.

“If he is indeed elected, it indicates the control of the Revolutionary Guards, who pushed him behind the scenes,” explains Danny Sitrinowitz, an expert on Iran and a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). “This is a bad message regarding Iran’s future conduct. He is a problematic model – a religious sage, relatively young, a counterman with vengeful feelings and strongly connected by the Revolutionary Guards, the more extreme elements in the regime.”

In Iran International it was reported that his election was intended, from the point of view of the Revolutionary Guards, to maintain the chain of command and prevent splits and internal battles at the top of the leadership. It was also reported that he receives legitimacy from the hawkish elements in the regime, the security institutions and regime loyalists. On the other hand, he holds an official position in the regime, and the transfer of power from father to son is not acceptable in the Shia establishment – especially not in the Iranian regime that arose after the overthrow of the monarchy in the country.

The 56-year-old Mushtaba Khamenei was born in Mashhad, the second son of Ali Khamenei. He acquired his religious education in the city of Qom, the most important Shiite learning center in Iran, and even before that he focused on religious studies. He is a religious man and in recent years has become an Ayatollah, but on the other hand he is not considered an influential religious leader.

According to reports, he participated in the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, and was a leading factor in suppressing the protests that erupted in 2009 against his father’s regime, through the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij. Over the years, he made sure to stay away from the spotlight, and rarely spoke publicly or shared his world view.

However, he is considered a very influential figure behind the scenes of the Iranian regime, and is very close to his father, former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. According to estimates, he was responsible for linking his father to the counter-revolutionary shifts and other factors, and was dominant within the office of the Supreme Leader. Also, according to various reports, Moshetba was responsible for managing his father’s finances, with an estimated value of approximately 100 billion dollars.

In 2019, the United States imposed sanctions on him, as part of a series of measures against Khamenei’s inner circle and for “promoting the regime’s internal and external repression”. According to the US administration, Moshtab “worked closely with the commander of the Quds Force and the commander of the Basij to further his father’s goals of destabilizing the region and oppressing the Iranian people.

At the beginning of the current campaign, there were reports of his death, alongside his father, but they were not verified. The Iranian news agency “Mahar” reported today that Moshtaba is safe and sound and was not injured in the bombing, which killed his father, wife and other members of his family.

Moshetaba has been marked as the heir for many years back, and it was reported in Iran International as early as 2024 that he was secretly chosen to succeed his father. His choice comes against two candidates who are seen as more moderate, and may symbolize the continuation of the extreme line of the regime.

“If you analyze his habitat – Kom, his father, the Revolutionary Guards – he will probably follow his father’s path, or worse,” says Sitrinowitz. Vali Nasser, an expert on Iran at Johns Hopkins University, expressed a similar position in an interview with the New York Times: “If he is elected, this indicates that the harder wing, associated with the Revolutionary Guards, is the one now holding the reins.”

On the other hand, Abdulraza Davari, an Iranian politician who is close to Moustafa, said in public statements and in interviews with the “New York Times” that if he does succeed his father, he may turn out to be a much more moderate figure, in the style of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman – this is contrary to the experts’ analysis.

According to Citrinowitz, it is difficult to assess whether Moshtab has the support of the Iranian public, and he was not at the center of public discourse in the country. “He was not elected to the position because he is popular – these are because of the commitment to his father, the support of the Revolutionary Guards and the understanding that someone needs to unite the ranks of the regime,” the expert concluded.