A blow to Putin: this is how Russia lost influence in the Middle East

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced today that his country will provide assistance to the Gulf countries in intercepting Iranian drones as part of the war in Iran. At the same time, the war in Iran reveals once again, and perhaps in the clearest way so far, how Russia has lost its place in the international arena and has become a country with only a low influence.

“We received signals from the partners in the Middle East – they are asking for our expertise in dealing with the martyrs,” Zelensky wrote today on the X Network about Iran’s UAV attacks towards Middle Eastern countries. “We are open, if their representatives arrive we will provide them with the expertise, especially due to the fact that there is also a request from the Europeans and the US. We have received requests to share our experience with our partners in the Middle East.”

Zelensky also addressed the arms crisis in the Middle East, and tried to leverage Ukraine’s defense industries. “Regarding weapons, I explained that it is too false to intercept UAVs using Patriot missiles – we have interceptor drones,” Zelensky added.

In recent years, Ukraine has gained enormous and unprecedented combat experience in the entire issue of air defense, following a continuous confrontation with Russia’s Iranian drones over the past four years. In January, Russia launched an average of 143 drones each day towards Ukraine, and Ukraine intercepted an average of 122 of them each day, according to data from the Institute for International Science and Security.

Along with Ukraine’s high air defense capabilities, Zelensky also expresses concern about a serious depletion of interceptor ammunition, which is critical for Ukraine. Alongside the attempt to leverage Ukraine’s defense industries, there is a real fear in Kiev that the war in the Middle East will deal a severe blow to Ukraine’s ability to arm itself and defend itself in the near future.

The assassination of Iran’s leader Ali Khamenei was a particularly hard blow for Putin, who in less than a year and a half lost three close allies. Russia’s lack of political presence and its lack of ability to help its ally Iran underlines how Russia’s global position has collapsed, and how much influence it has in the international arena.

If the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria was mainly the result of local processes on the ground, which along the way exposed the weakness of the Russian army and its ability to deal with the rebels in Syria, then the last two – Maduro in Venezuela and Khamenei in Iran, were a direct result of American military action. Putin, partly out of a desire to maintain good relations with Trump, will remain silent and unresponsive while the US president has removed two of the Russian president’s associates from the map.

A Russian researcher close to senior diplomats in Moscow told The Washington Post that these events exposed the limits of Russia’s power. According to him, the fact that Moscow and Beijing have failed to do anything to help their allies could affect Russia’s relations with other partners around the world – and in fact this can already be seen in the countries of Central Asia, former countries of the Soviet Union, which are showing surprising independence and turning their backs on Russia. This can also be seen in the Caucasus, where Azerbaijan was not afraid to enter into a conflict with Russia in the last year, and small Armenia also turned its back on it and opened new routes to the Western countries.

If all this is not enough, then Trump is preparing another blow for Putin – with his recent statements that he will “take over Cuba in a friendly way”, another country very close to Russia and Putin.

Andriy Sibiha, Ukraine’s foreign minister, referred to the collapse of Russia’s ability to influence the world, saying that Putin had lost three of his closest allies in just over a year, without helping any of them. Thus, according to him, it can be seen that “Russia is not a reliable ally – even for countries that depend on it.”

Putin is still trying to stay relevant, and has held talks with some of the leaders of the Gulf states in recent days. And despite this, it is doubtful how much he will be able to help, and it is clear that the main conversation between them deals with the energy market and the production and export of oil.

Still, Russia does recognize some important advantages for it in the war with Iran. First and foremost, Moscow benefits from the fact that the world’s attention is diverted from it, and while Trump and the rest of the West are focused on what is happening in the Middle East – Putin can continue to try to make progress in Ukraine, since the peace talks are still a few blocks away from achieving real political results.

In addition, what is bad for Ukraine – good for Russia. While the USA and the countries of the region are depleting their stocks of interceptor missiles, including against UAVs, Ukraine is suffering and fears that it will not be able to get the stocks of interceptor ammunition it needs in the war with Russia. Poland’s Defense Minister Władysław Kusniak-Kamisz said this week: “The protracted conflict in the Middle East is expected to disrupt the supply of air defense ammunition from the US to European countries and especially to Ukraine.”

Another positive issue from Russia’s point of view is the increase in oil and gas prices. Any such increase could put a little more money into Moscow’s dwindling coffers, which rely heavily on oil and gas sales, especially now that Europe is experiencing particularly large price increases.