Trump would support a Kurdish offensive in Iran: who are the fighters who could open a new war front?

The strategy against Iran could be entering a new phase. According to reports spread by American media, the CIA and the Mossad They would be coordinating contacts and support to arm Kurdish groups opposed to the regimein an attempt to open an internal front that complements external military pressure and weakens Tehran from within, even with popular uprisings. Those same soldiers would be in charge of a land invasion and would supply for now the need for USA e Israel to put troops on the ground. The president Donald Trump has already announced that he would support this offensive.

According to the CNN news network, the Government of Trump has been in discussions with Iranian opposition groups and leaders Kurds in Iraq about the possibility of providing them with military support.

SEE ALSO: Iran does not fall and puts the United States before a high-risk decision: a ground invasion to overthrow the regime

For its part, the Axios portal reported that six days before the United States and Israel’s war against Iran began (February 28), several groups Iranian Kurds dissidents refugees in Irak announced the formation of the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan to fight against the Iranian regime.

Trump was asked on Thursday by Reuters about the subject. “It’s great that they want to do that, I would be totally in favor,” he said. However, he declined to say whether his country would provide air support to fighters. kurds.

The information mentions Kurdish militias such as Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI), Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), Komala and PJAK.

These groups have thousands of armed fighters near the Iranian border and many of them have military experience in previous conflicts, such as the war against ISIS.

Two US officials consulted by Axios said that Iranian Kurdish militias have the backing of Mossad and the CIA.

The objective is to try to take over a specific territory in the Kurdish region within Iran to challenge the regime and inspire a lifting broader, a US official said.

Thus, the idea is that once the Iranian security forces are neutralized, popular uprisings would no longer be crushed with blood and fire by the regime, as happened during the January riots.

On Thursday, Iran claimed to have attacked Kurdish groups in the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistanwhich hosts American troops.

“We have attacked the headquarters of the Kurdish groups opposed to the revolution in Iraqi Kurdistan with three missiles”the Revolutionary Guard indicated in a statement.

The Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, was questioned in Congress on the issue of support for the Iranian Kurds and he responded that The United States “is not arming the Kurds. But with the Israelis you never know.”

While on Wednesday, the White House press secretary, Caroline Leavitttold reporters that President Trump has not agreed to any plans to support an offensive by Iranian Kurdish militias against the regime.

CNN had reported on Tuesday that Trump spoke with the president of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of IranMustafa Hijri.

Axios reported that Trump also called Iraqi Kurdish leaders on Sunday to discuss the US military operation in Iran and how the US and the Kurds could work together as the mission moves forward.

The idea of ​​​​supporting the Iranian Kurdish factions and use them for a ground offensive from Iraq towards Iran emerged from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Mossadand the CIA joined the effort at a later stage, a US official told Axios.

That official added that Israel has promised Iranian Kurdish factions not only military support but also political support to establish an autonomous Kurdish region in the future Iran if the regime ends up collapsing.

On Wednesday, Iranian Kurdish factions denied launching a ground offensive, as had been reported that day. According to Axios, a Kurdish source stated that This offensive could begin at the end of this weekbut added that the different factions are waiting for the green light from the United States for their entry.

The international analyst Roberto Heimovits warned that the idea that kurdish militias lead a new phase of the war against Iran raises serious doubts about its viability and could even further complicate the conflict.

Before evaluating this scenario, Heimovits recalls that the Kurds constitute one of the most numerous peoples in the world without a state of their own. It is estimated that between 30 and 40 million Kurds They live mainly between Iraq, Syria, Türkiye and Iran. However, turning them into the main ground force against the Iranian regime would not be an easy task.

“The number of Iranian Kurdish fighters with military training is relatively limited and many of them are currently based in Iraq”he explains. For this reasonArming thousands of additional fighters would involve a complex process: “You can’t turn civilians into soldiers in a matter of one or two weeks.”

The analyst also warns that if in exchange for their participation they were promised to the Iranian Kurds autonomy or independence, this could generate unexpected political effects within the country. According to him, an important part of the opposition to the regime is made up of Persians who reject the government of the ayatollahs, but who They could close ranks if they perceive that foreign intervention seeks to fragment the country.

“Iran is like a multiethnic mini empire,” holds. In addition to the Persians—dominant group— “Kurdish, Azeri, Baloch, Arab and Turkmen communities coexist. If the Kurds were to gain autonomy or independence, other groups could also demand the same, which could divide the current opposition.”.

Heimovit’s considera que the strategy of arming Kurdish militias could even prolong the war. If the conflict were to enter a negotiation phase—for example, if Tehran agreed to limit or eliminate their nuclear or missile programs in exchange for a ceasefire—the United States and Israel would face a dilemma: abandon the Kurds who had risen up against the regime or reject an eventual agreement with Iran.

“If they abandon them, they would be exposed to brutal retaliation,” warns.

Another factor that complicates the scenario is the historical distrust of some Kurds towards the United States. The analyst remembers that in 1946 there was an ephemeral Kurdish State in northwest Iran, the so-called Republic of Mahabadwhich disappeared after the withdrawal of Soviet support and the recovery of the territory by Tehran.

Furthermore, a Kurdish insurgency within Iran could have regional consequences, including the possibility of destabilizing the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistanone of the few spaces where the Kurds have achieved some level of self-government.

“Let us not forget that the United States has just abandoned the Syrian Kurds, who fought alongside it against the Islamic State, to their fate, it has just abandoned them in the face of the new government of Ahmed al-Sharah”he remarked.

For Heimovits, the plan to resort to Kurdish militias would also reflect the attempt to prevent the deployment of US troops on the ground. However, he warns that if Washington really seeks to alter the military balance in Iran, it would probably have to consider its own operations in strategic points, such as coastal areas or key facilities for the oil trade such as the Kharg Island.

“Arming the Kurds made sense in Iraq against Saddam Hussein or against the Islamic State, because there was a large trained force that only needed modern weapons,” explains. “But in the case of Iran, the number of experienced fighters is much smaller.”

For all this, the analyst concludes that betting on a Kurdish insurgency as a substitute for direct intervention seems an unrealistic strategy. ““The Kurds deserve autonomy and greater rights,” points out. “But involving them immediately in this war, without a sufficient military base, does not seem like a practicable idea and could end up prolonging the conflict.”

Los kurds They are one of the oldest peoples in the Middle East and, at the same time, the largest ethnic group in the world without a state of its own. It is estimated that between 30 and 40 million people They belong to this community, united by their language—the kurdish—, its culture and a common historical identity. The majority profess the sunni islamalthough there are also religious minorities such as yazidíes.

Historically, the Kurds inhabit an extensive mountainous region known as Kurdistanlocated between the Taurus Mountains and the Zagros Mountains, in the heart of the Middle East (the regions closest to Eastern Europe and the Mediterranean). This territory extends mainly Türkiye, Iraq, Iran and Syriaalthough there are also Kurdish communities in Armenia and other countries. The Kurdish presence in this area dates back more than three thousand years.

At the beginning of the 20th century, after the fall of the Ottoman Empire at the end of the First World War, the possibility of creating an independent Kurdish state arose. However, international agreements that redrawn the map of the Middle East ended up dividing Kurdistan between several countries. Since then, the Kurds have played a leading role political movements, rebellions and struggles for autonomy or independence in the different states where they live.

In recent decades, the Kurds have played a relevant role in several regional conflicts. In Iraq, for example, there is a autonomous Kurdish region with its own government and armed forceswhile in Syria Kurdish militias were key actors in the fight against Islamic State. Despite these partial advances in self-government, the project of a unified Kurdish state remains difficult due to opposition from the countries where its historical territory is located.

In Iran they live between 8 and 10 million Kurdsconcentrated mainly in the western provinces near Iraq. The relationship with the Iranian State has historically been tense: different Kurdish movements have demanded greater political autonomy and cultural rights, which has generated confrontations with the central government.

A key episode was the brief Republic of Mahabad in 1946an attempt at a Kurdish state on Iranian territory that was quickly crushed by Tehran. Since then there have been rebellions and Kurdish opposition movements, although many Kurds also participate in Iranian political life. For decades, the country was led by the supreme leader Ali Jameneiwhose regime maintained firm control over the Kurdish regions and repressed insurgent groups seeking autonomy or independence.