War in Iran: the first effects on the price of gas expected at the beginning of May, are you concerned?

You haven’t seen anything yet. Bercy said on Friday that it anticipated an increase in gas bills for certain French consumers, those who do not have a fixed-price contract, from May 1, due to the “indexation method” of their contracts.

“40% of French people are on a fixed price offer,” Bercy explained to the press on Friday. “For the remaining 60%, the impact of the crisis could be felt on energy bills from May 1. » “This discrepancy is due to the method of indexing gas supply contracts in France, which is based on monthly market references with a one-month lag,” detailed the Ministry of the Economy.

Minister Roland Lescure estimated Thursday evening in our columns that, out of approximately 10.4 million French gas subscribers, “approximately 7 million may be affected by the variability of the market price” linked to the war in the Middle East. “But the recent rise in the markets should not be felt before the beginning of May, at a time when consumption is falling sharply” with spring temperatures, declared Roland Lescure. “For an average household, the impact would therefore be very low, barely a few euros” per month.

Beware of offers on market prices

According to Bercy, the potential increase would represent “less than 10 euros per month”. “5 to 10%”, argued this Friday the Minister of Commerce Serge Papin in Ouest-France. “Consumers who are on a fixed price offer will be protected” from variations in gas prices on the markets, declared a spokesperson for the National Energy Ombudsman.

On the other hand, “those who will see their bill change are those who have subscribed to offers indexed to the reference price published each month on the website of the Energy Regulatory Commission”, explains the National Energy Mediator. Because this reference price, a sort of compass to help consumers compare supplier offers, varies every month depending on gas prices on the markets.

Concerning electricity, the Minister of the Economy Roland Lescure estimated that a possible increase in prices, partly correlated with those of gas on the European market, seemed “unlikely”.

France currently has carbon-free electricity production capacities, particularly nuclear, which are widely available. This electricity “helps to decorrelate electricity prices in France from the volatility of gas prices,” Bercy said. But to clarify: “The evolution of the situation will however depend on the duration and intensity of the international conflict. »