Iran, Trump wants a white flag in Tehran. But plan B appears to avoid endless war

“There will be no agreement with Iran other than unconditional surrender, That it could be announced by the Iranians. It could happen when they can no longer fight because they will no longer have anyone or anything to fight,” Trump says, hoping for developments that, at the moment, do not seem likely. “After the selection of great and acceptable leaders, we and many of our wonderful and very courageous allies and partners will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better and stronger than ever before. Iran will have a great future”, he adds. The model, in short, is Venezuela: after the removal of Nicolas Maduro, at the top is Delcy Rodirguez, the deputy of the president now detained in the USA.

The identikit of the leader

“Even in Iran there must be a leader who is fair and just. Who does a great job. Who treats the United States and Israel well and who also treats other countries in the Middle East well: they are all our partners,” Trump says. If a religious leader remained at the top, would the American president agree? “Well, I might be, depending on who the person is. Religious leaders don’t bother me. I deal with a lot of religious leaders and they are amazing“, he tells CNN.

Operation Epic Fury in Iran is expected to last about a month, although Trump has not ruled out additional time. Secretary of State Marco Rubio informed the foreign ministers of some Arab countries, in a series of phone calls yesterday, that the war with Iran is expected to last several weeks, according to rumors reported by Axios. Rubio indicated Iran’s missile launchers, stockpiles and factories as priorities from the point of view of military targets. The US goal is not regime change, but Washington wants different people to lead the Islamic Republic.

No to the land invasion but a signal is appearing

Trump, meanwhile, suggests that a land invasion is not necessary to achieve the goals: “We destroyed everything, it would be a waste of time.” The American war machine, however, remains ready for any eventuality. The signal of the last few hours is clear: the army has canceled an important exercise of the 82nd Airborne Division, specialized in ground operations and complex missions. The decision, revealed by the Washington Post, fuels speculation about the possible deployment of troops in the Middle East. In a few hours, 4,000-5,000 soldiers could leave, who are part of units capable of intervening in operations to control critical infrastructuresthe strengthening of US embassies and emergency evacuations.

The ‘shoulder’ with the ground action could become necessary, or indispensable, if the raids do not produce decisive results. The scenario outlined by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz contributes to integrating the picture: Trump will be forced to seek a compromise with Iran on Tehran’s nuclear program if the joint military attack with Israel fails, in the short term, to have the desired success. The Iranian regime shows no signs of capitulation and seems adamant in wanting to continue fighting, despite an increasingly evident inferiority: Tehran’s missiles are decreasing, its defenses are increasingly less effective.

Do you need a plan B?

However, if a decisive solution to the conflict is not reached, Trump will have to evaluate an alternative, that is, a new nuclear agreement with major limitations on the Iranian projectbut without a regime change. The American president actually abandoned this line last week when he decided to eliminate the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, who had proven unwilling to show flexibility on the nuclear project. Now, without Khamenei, the United States may reevaluate whether and what to talk about with Tehran’s leadership.

Israeli analyst Danny Citrinowicz of the Institute for National Security Studies wrote that victory in the war means toppling the regime. At the same time, however, he observed that there is no certainty that the US Administration is willing to invest the time and resources that the objective would require.