The one who loses and the one who gains: this is how the war affects Russia and China

The war with Iran has broad political effects not only for Israel, the United States and Iran – but also for Washington’s two main rivals: Russia and China. While Moscow does not hide its satisfaction with the benefits that the war brings for it, for Beijing it is an economic danger, and at the same time both countries are preparing to help Tehran behind the scenes, according to a series of reports.

The Russian president met on the second with the heads of the largest energy companies in Russia, and did not hide his satisfaction with the consequences of the war in Iran. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s oil and gas industries have faced severe sanctions from the United States and Europe – which has severely damaged the Russian economy, which depends on them. Now that energy prices are soaring due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the attack on the energy facilities of the Gulf countries, Russia is once again a relevant player.

To deal with the increase in oil prices, which have already led to an increase in fuel prices across the US, the US government has already allowed refineries in India to purchase Russian oil for a month. Finance Minister Scott Bessant and President Donald Trump have made it clear that there may be further easing of sanctions on Russia, either temporarily or permanently.

Putin has chosen to sting the European countries in recent days, whose energy prices have skyrocketed. “If European companies and European buyers suddenly decide to reorient themselves and promise us consistent and long-term cooperation, without political aspects – please. We have never refused, and we are ready to work with the Europeans,” the Russian president said this week.

The surge in oil prices in itself is encouraging news for the Russian economy, for which oil is its lifeblood. The price of Russian oil jumped by about 100% – and as long as the situation continues, it is expected to improve Russia’s economic situation and allow it more leverage towards the West regarding the war in Ukraine. Before the war with Iran, Russia’s economic situation was precarious, with an annual growth forecast of only about 1%.

According to a report in the Washington Post and CNN, Russia is even helping Iran during the war and providing it with intelligence. The information includes locations of American assets such as ships and bases – so that Iran can attack them.

Another rival power of Washington is less satisfied with the war. China has many assets in the Middle East and benefits from the cheap oil that comes from the region – and the continuation of the war could damage its economy.

The fighting has almost completely halted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane for the transfer of energy and goods for China. The oil from the Middle East is a critical component of China’s energy security: more than half of the crude oil that reaches it by sea is imported from the Middle East, and a significant part of it comes from China. However, CNBC reported tonight that since the war, Iran has sent about 12 million barrels to China through the strait, a significant amount but much lower than the amount that reached the country before the war.

“My main interest in China when it comes to Iran and the Middle East was and remains the stability of China’s energy security, as the largest importer of oil in the world. The logistic-economic effects are extremely significant,” Tovia Gering, visiting researcher at the Israel-China Policy Center at INSS, tells N12. Goering emphasizes that China normally buys most of the oil that Iran supplies – and benefits greatly from its cheap price.

Chinese investments in the Middle East are also growing at a faster rate than anywhere else in the world. “Any security instability can damage Chinese investments worth tens of billions of dollars,” Goering explains. Beijing has many assets in the Middle East and extensive trade relations with the Gulf countries – all of these are being damaged as the war continues. Goering says the war could affect China’s ability to meet its economic goals.

On the other hand, there may also be certain gains for China in this war. First, Goering explains, if the war damages American legitimacy in the world, it will help Chinese efforts to position Beijing as a leading and responsible player in the international community. In addition, the war requires the US to invest a lot of effort in the Middle East, which serves China.

According to Goering, in the big picture the war is “not good for China”, and she prefers that the Iranian regime survive. According to a CNN report, Beijing is preparing to assist Iran, including missile components and financial support.