European Council the day after tomorrow in Brussels, EU leaders divided on energy

In addition to the President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola and the Ukrainian Parliament Volodymyr Zelensky, regular presences at the EU summits (the second will be connected via videoconference), the leaders will also have the opportunity to have lunch with the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres. The work will begin at 10am, with the first arrivals expected at 8.30am, and will continue until late in the evening, but “it’s possible” that in the end it takes “two days” to exhaust the summit’s agenda, a senior EU official explained.

One of the main discussions, “if not the main discussion” of the summit, will be that of energy prices and on how to deal with the increase which, already considerable before the Israeli-American attack on Iran, is taking place even more worrying. On this topic, but it’s nothing new, EU leaders are divided, as they were in the times of the energy crisis after the large-scale invasion of Ukraine.

To reach an agreement on a ceiling on the price of gas, loudly and tirelessly requested by the then Prime Minister Mario Draghi, the prices on the TTF in Amsterdam had to soar well above 300 euros per megawatt hour. Now, with the price of a barrel of oil which, according to several experts, could exceed 200 dollars if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen quickly to the passage of oil tankers, the EU seems intent on reciting the same script. For the senior EU official, however, “the crisis that we are facing now it’s not as serious as 2022“.

On how to deal with the situation, European leaders, having “different diagnoses”, have different ideas on the “medicines” to use. So, “it’s hard to agree on the same recipe”, he explains. The issue of electricity prices must be “addressed”, but there are different views on this: “A large majority of member countries have said that the structure of the electricity market”, which makes electricity prices dependent on gas prices, “must not be changed”. This is the position of several large member countries, starting with Germany.

Notable differences also on a topic linked to the previous one, the Youthe Emissions Trading System, which “for the majority of member countries is a market instrument that has existed for many years and it is important to keep it functioning”, while a third of the member countries, nine (enough to form a blocking minority), including Italy, Poland and Romania, think differently.

Of course, the source concedes, “the price of ETS quotas has a certain weight” on the electricity prices of the countries most dependent on fossil fuels, so there are “problems that need to be addressed”. And therefore, “I would expect” clues on the solutions to be applied in the “conclusions” of the European Council, which however “I hope can be agreed”, given that it is a field “not easy”. Therefore, it is not certain that the conclusions on energy will be adopted by the leaders: “We have to see, in the European Council they are there different views“, explains the senior official.

Another issue is that of the 90 billion euro loan for Ukraine for 2026-27, agreed last December and blocked by the double veto of Slovakia and Hungary. Presidents Costa and Ursula von der Leyen obtained, after repeated pressure on Volodymyr Zelensky, a letter in which he committed to repairing the Druzhba pipeline, thanks to EU funds and aid. But it is not enough for Prime Minister Viktor Orban, very busy in an electoral campaign in which he is at a disadvantage over Tisza’s rivals: he has already said that, in the absence of Russian oil, there will be no money for Ukraine.

Antonio Costa spoke with the Hungarian leader today and patiently keeps the two things separate. The 90 billion loan “must be approved as soon as possible”, explains the senior official, given that “it has already been agreed” at the December summit. And the decisions taken in the European Council are respected. Despite Orban making fire and flames via social media, the senior official predicts that a solution will arrive “very soon”, even if several observers bet that the Hungarian leader will resist until the elections on April 12, before giving the green light.

Another issue, for Costa, is that of the repair of the Druzhba oil pipeline, which carried Russian crude oil to Slovakia and Hungary, because it concerns the “energy security” of two EU member countries and, therefore, it is a problem that will need to be resolved, something that Zelensky committed to doing in the letter released today. Meanwhile, as has been happening regularly for at least a year, the conclusions on Ukraine will be approved at 26which means that, technically, they are not conclusions of the European Council and do not have the same legal value.

Regarding the wars in the Middle East, with particular reference to Iran and Lebanon, without forgetting the situation in Gaza and the West Bank, the source expects a “very concrete debate”. European countrieshe notes, “they didn’t start the war,” though they must “face the consequences“.

We can expect “concrete coordination of member states on how the EU can contribute to a de-escalation in the area” and to favor “a return to diplomacy by all parties involved”. UN Secretary General Guterres “indicated the possibility of a solution” favored by the United Nations. “We hope that the conflict will end as soon as possible.”

There is also an informal debate on the competitiveness agenda at Alden-Biesen Castle in Limburg, which should have been the ‘heart’ of this summit, but will not be, due to more pressing problems. The agenda includes “very concrete” measures, starting from the so-called 28th regime for businesses, which should be presented tomorrow and which however, as already clarified by von der Leyen, will not concern labor legislation, as well as progress on “simplification”, i.e. the Omnibuses, which seem to have become the hallmark of von der Leyen two, instead of the Green Deal which dominated the agenda of the first Commission led by German politics.

Given that energy prices are part of the discussion on EU competitiveness, it is likely that leaders’ attention will focus more on those than on other issues, which will also be on the table such as European preferencethe reduction of economic dependencies, technological sovereignty and protections from “unfair competition”. Also on the agenda are defense and security, as well as migration, which however are topics on which a discussion between the leaders is not expected.

On the MFF 2028-34, the objective remains to arrive at the end of June with a ‘negobox’, with “numbers”, on which to negotiate the final version of the EU’s multiannual financial framework. The only thing that is certain, for now, is that it will be a long European Council.