The Overlooked War: Why Are Afghanistan and Pakistan Fighting?

It cannot be reliably confirmed how many people lost their lives in the air raid in the Afghan capital Kabul. The Taliban government speaks of at least 400 deadthe local office of the United Nations von 140 dead and 120 injured.

One thing is certain: the attack marks the climax so far in an extremely dangerous war between the neighbors Afghanistan and Pakistanwhich has been taking place for months in the shadow of other international conflicts.

Pakistan once tolerated the Taliban in its own country

For a long time, Pakistan was actually something of a secret protective force for the Taliban. The Atomic power maintained good relations with the USA and had officially welcomed the Western soldiers who occupied Afghanistan for twenty years – and at the same time tolerated high-ranking Taliban hidden in Pakistan for years.

The logic behind it: If the Islamists take power in Afghanistan again at some point after a possible US withdrawal, they would finally be friendly towards each other, historical border disputes could end and Pakistan would have a possible regional partner in its simmering ongoing conflict If. But since the Taliban retook their country in 2021 and US troops hastily withdrew, everything turned out very differently.

Why fighting broke out with Afghanistan in October

Instead of working closely with the government in Islamabad, the Taliban began strengthening their Pakistani sister organization, the so-called Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Attacks by this militia increased massively – and Pakistan accused the new Afghan government of training, equipping and harboring TTP terrorists. The Taliban deny this.

Pakistan Militarywhich alone decides on foreign and security policy issues and more than 600,000 active soldiers commanded, hit back harder and harder. The conflict escalated last October when Pakistan carried out air strikes on suspected TTP positions in Afghan territory for the first time. The Taliban responded with artillery fire. The approximately 2,600 kilometer long border suddenly became the front line.

It is noteworthy that all attempts at mediation have so far failed. After days of fighting, both sides agreed to a ceasefire – but it only lasted nine days. Since then there have been discussions Train, Saudi Arabia and the Türkiye. Also China – which borders Afghanistan and Pakistan – has named a special envoy for the conflict. Even a letter from the ruler Xi Jinping only brought about a respite.

“Open war” broke out in February

Neither side is prepared to back down: Pakistan fears that extremist tendencies will come to power in its own country, and the young Taliban government must prove to its people that it can defend Afghanistan’s sovereignty. However, some military analysts suspect that the Taliban would be unable to prevent the TTP militias from entrenching themselves on the Afghan side of the border.

Pakistan’s defense minister spoke at the end of February Khawaja Muhammad Asif from one “open war”. Since then, the military has also been attacking major cities in Afghanistan from the air, including Kandahar and the capital Kabul.

Pakistan announces another ceasefire – will it last?

Now Pakistan is trying to take countermeasures, at least in the short term: on Wednesday the military announced a six-day ceasefire on the occasion of the Muslim Sugar Festival to. However, it remains to be seen whether it will last. Similar agreements have failed several times within a few days in recent months.

It is difficult to verify how successful Pakistan’s approach is. The information on the number of deaths, successful or repelled attacks differs enormously on both sides. This was also the case on Monday, when the rehabilitation clinic in Kabul became a target.

Afghanistan condemns the attack as war crimes. Pakistan claims the building is on the site of a former US base Camp Phoenix was actually used militarily by the Taliban.

Both are probably true – the Taliban often use civilians as a “shield”. However, with its tough approach, Pakistan risks strengthening the very forces it is trying to fight.