Strait of Hormuz and oil, UN ‘saves’ Trump: here’s the mission

How the ‘Black Sea model’ was structured

On the basis of what was agreed four years ago by Russia, Ukraine, Türkiye and the UN with the maritime corridors for grain, one can imagine a similar initiative that includes “the identification of safe ports” along the Gulf oil route, with “inspections of departing cargoes” and “authorizations for the export of specific goods, from crude oil to fertilizers”, explain the sources. So far the technical part, but the crux remains participation in the mission: which countries, with how many personnel, with what means.

Discussions are said to be ongoing between Guterres’ office and representatives of the five permanent members of the Security Council to get the green light for the missionwith China and Russia which should not get in the way, the former because it imports around 13% of the crude oil it needs from Iran, the latter because it has every interest in getting back into the game.

The possible scenarios

If the model is that of the “Black sea grain initiative” which worked for about a year, it does not necessarily mean that a cessation of hostilities between Tehran, Washington and Tel Aviv is necessary, but some observers underline how the agreement for a mission could give the United States and Donald Trump the opportunity to get out of the Hormuz ‘trap’, possibly providing a pretext to declare ‘Epic Fury’ over.

“The stakes are very high”, said a UN spokesperson, after the High Representative for European Foreign Policy, Kaja Kallas, said she had spoken with Guterres about the possibility of developing an initiative like the one for Ukraine four years ago, “we will not fuel speculation and we will continue to work discreetly”.