Someone is betting on the war in Iran. And he earns too much

Otto account created a few days ago they aimed almost at the weekend 70 thousand dollars its one truce between the United States and Iran by March 31st, fueling suspicions that they may be behind those plays confidential information.

According to an investigation by the Guardian, i walletall open around March 21st, would gross approximately 820 thousand dollars in case of cease-fire formalized by the end of the month. Making the case even more delicate is the precedent of another account, created shortly before American raids against Iran of February 28, who would have bet (and won) precisely on thatescalation militare without carrying out, so far, other significant operations.

Strange coincidences and insider suspicion

A coincidence that had already sparked questions about the possible presence of insider sui predictive markets related to the war. The experts of crypto sector quoted by the British newspaper they speak openly about anomalous operations. Ben Yorke, former researcher at CoinTelegraph and currently involved in the development of a trading platform based onartificial intelligencemaintains that the splitting of bets between multiple wallets and the attempts to make the identity of the bettors opaque are signals compatible with a case of insider trading. According to Yorke, those wallets “definitely look” attributable to someone with “some degree of internal information“.

Polymarket, prediction market platform founded on cryptocurrenciesallows users to bet on the outcome of political, economic and geopolitical events. In this specific case, the market on the truce between Washington and Tehran saw the implicit probability of a rise in a few days agreement from 6% on March 21st to 24% on Monday, with more 21 million dollars focused overall on the latter scenario.

The role of online predictive markets

The market ruleshowever, are rigid: for “yes” to be considered successful, a clear public confirmation by both the US and Iranian governments, or a broad consensus of credible media sources on the agreement. The case fits into a broader context: i online predictive markets are becoming more and more intertwined with international crises and there armed conflicts. The Guardian has already told us how betting related to missile attacks in Israel have even produced threats against an Israeli journalist, accused by some users of having compromised the outcome of a million-dollar bet with his news story.

Criticism of Polymarket and investors

They are Polymarket have been burdensome for a long time criticisms and the attentions of regulatory agencies due to the risk that the platform ends up facilitating forms of war speculation or improper use of non-public information. The structure of the documents also makes the dossier even more political investors: Reuters reported that in 2025 Polymarket achieved a investment and 1789 Capitalfund supported by Donald Trump Jr.also entered the advisory board of the company.