Sa’ar added that since March 2, 5,000 missiles, rockets and UAVs have been fired at Israel from Lebanese territory, in violation of the November 2024 ceasefire agreement. According to him, a large part of the firing was carried out south of Litani – an area that the Lebanese army announced in early January as being under its “operational control”. From Israel’s point of view, these things add up to a wider picture: not only the Lebanese failure to enforce a political decision against Iran, but also the ongoing difficulty of exercising sovereignty in the field against Hezbollah.
In the end, that’s exactly what happened. Despite the public announcement, despite the ultimatum and despite the message that Lebanon wanted to broadcast abroad, the Iranian ambassador remained in Beirut. His stay instantly turned from a diplomatic issue to further proof that even when the Lebanese state seeks to act against Iranian influence, it has great difficulty implementing its decisions against Hezbollah and its allies.
As far as Israel is concerned, this is a living illustration of the real power structure in Lebanon: official government institutions on the one hand, and in front of them a parallel power system in which Hezbollah, with Iranian backing, continues to dictate the pace. The announcement of the ambassador’s expulsion was intended to be portrayed as a demonstration of sovereignty. The fact that it was not enforced actually made it a proof of the state’s weakness.
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