A huge breakthrough: the array of assassinations in Iran has been revealed

While military commanders from the US and Israel were planning the war with Iran, a clear division of responsibilities was formed between the parties. The US was assigned broad targets such as military bases, missile batteries and nuclear sites, while Israel was assigned one central and particularly sensitive task: to locate the Iranian leadership and eliminate it.

Already at the beginning of the campaign, on February 28, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was eliminated in the opening blow, along with a number of other senior officials. Since then, according to the army data revealed in a report in the Washington Post, more than 250 senior Iranian officials have been eliminated. The final blow, for now, came with the assassination of the IRGC’s naval commander, Ali-Reza Thangasiri. Israeli officials present the assassination operation as an exceptional operational success in its scope and pace.

According to sources familiar with the details, Israel’s responsibility for the elimination of the leadership stems from the arrangement between the countries in which they work together but with complementary goals. The US made it clear that the division of roles reflects the capabilities of each side and not legal restrictions. However, there are those who recognize this as a pattern in which the US relies on Israel to do the “dirty work” of eliminating leaders.

US President Donald Trump described the attacks as a joint move, and claimed that the Iranian leadership was repeatedly replaced following the assassinations. According to him, the very change in the composition of the leadership indicates the achievement of the goal of regime change.

The ability to carry out such an operation rests on an infrastructure that Israel has built over decades and upgraded in recent years. It is a combination of human intelligence, penetration of technological systems and diverse attack methods.

Inside Iran, there is a network of sources recruited from within the system itself. At the same time, cyber intrusions were carried out against thousands of targets, including street cameras, payment platforms and Internet traffic control points that the regime itself established to control communications.

Israel’s intelligence agencies are leading a multi-year effort to penetrate Iran’s digital systems. According to an IDF official to the Washington Post, “We tried to hack everything that could be hacked”, from phone calls to internal security systems and databases of the Iranian security agencies, including facilities intended to be used as emergency headquarters for senior officials.

At the heart of the system is a classified artificial intelligence platform, which is capable of analyzing huge amounts of information collected from inside Iran. According to Israeli sources to the Washington Post, the system scans data from many sources and identifies patterns in the lives of regime officials, including movements, habits and connections.

This ability makes it possible to transform information that existed but could not be processed in the past, into a precise operational tool. This way you can locate targets in real time and even update attacks on the move. In one case, it was reported that a missile was diverted after launch due to a change in the location of the target, which moved from an office to a nearby apartment.

Security officials describe the system as one of the most significant breakthroughs in the field of espionage in the last decade.

The attack that killed Ali Khamenei was the result of prolonged monitoring of the meetings of the “Group of Five”, a nickname for the leader and his closest advisers. According to Israeli sources, the group used to gather almost every week, in different locations and with different levels of security.

On the day of the attack, Khamenei was staying with his family on the floor above the ground in his residence. His son Mujtaba, who was seriously injured, survived partly because he went to a nearby garden. Since the death of the father, he plays a limited role and is kept in relative isolation.

The timing of the attack was changed at the last minute after information was received that the meeting had been brought forward from the evening to the morning. Israeli warplanes were the ones that carried out the attack, even though the US stationed large forces in the area.

According to Israeli officials, part of the success also stems from errors on the Iranian side. Despite warning signs, regime officials continued to gather in central Tehran and did not move to underground facilities meant to protect them.

In addition, the regime’s control and repression efforts created weak points. The concentration of Internet traffic to central points allowed Israel to penetrate sensitive information, including internal communications of the regime’s own members.

Even weeks after the start of the war, senior officials in Israel expressed astonishment that Khamenei and his top advisers gathered in central Tehran, despite the signs of escalation. “One cannot explain it,” said an Israeli security official. “Every person on Earth would have understood that the perfect storm was approaching.”

Despite the scale of the killings, it is unclear whether the campaign is achieving its broad goals. Senior officials who have been eliminated are sometimes replaced by more radical subordinates, and protests in the streets do not materialize due to the fear of repression. Israeli officials describe the regime as damaged but stable and even one that feels accomplished after surviving prolonged attacks.

Experts warn that the increasing use of targeted assassinations may turn from a one-off operational response into a central strategy. According to them, this creates dependence on this tool and even expands the limits of the possible goals. Alongside the tactical achievements, the question of whether the campaign of assassinations brings about a profound change in the balance of power vis-à-vis Iran is still open.