Trump’s ex-advisor John R. Bolton in ZiB 2: “Typical bluster”

John R. Boltonformer national security advisor to Donald Trump, has now become a harsh critic of the US president. He accuses him of starting the Iran war completely unprepared and Trump’s decisions are becoming increasingly chaotic.

Bolton also confirmed this on Tuesday evening ZiB 2-Interview with Armin Wolf. Trump’s reaction after the expiry of the Ultimatum to Iran is difficult to predict, but: “I think it’s typical Trump bluster. I don’t know what he’ll do when the 8 p.m. Washington time deadline passes without an agreement. And there is no agreement in sight.”

Use of nuclear weapons in Iran? “Chances nil”

For the period after the deadline, Bolton believed it was possible that there could be “strong attacks on bridges and other infrastructure” by Iran, but at the same time Trump would claim that he had “mitigated” the attack and gave Iran about “seven more days of grace”. Bolton rejected speculation about the possible use of nuclear weapons and said that he estimated the chances of this to be “zero”.

When asked how an announcement to “completely destroy” Iran’s civilian infrastructure should be assessed, Trump’s ex-advisor said that just because something looks like civilian infrastructure, it could be a legitimate military target, for example if power plants supply military bases or manufacturing plants. Bolton also pointed to estimates that the Revolutionary Guards in Iran own 40 percent of the economy. Proportionality is crucial in the event of collateral damage. At the same time, Bolton said that Trump had stated that he didn’t care whether it violated international law or was a war crime. Bolton emphasizes that he himself expects the US military to stick to its training and principles.

He considers speculation about Trump’s mental health to be “dangerous” and prefers to leave diagnoses to doctors. “I’m a lawyer,” said Bolton.

“Patience and perseverance” for regime change in Iran

Looking at the weeks of war so far, Bolton said there had indeed been a regime change in Iran, “albeit towards the even more extreme Revolutionary Guards”. The former security advisor emphasized that it took 47 years for the Ayatollahs and Revolutionary Guards to establish the dictatorship in Iran, while this system has now been fought “for only six weeks.” It takes “patience and perseverance” and the regime is under pressure: “We have triggered a premature succession crisis by eliminating the supreme leader and hundreds of leading figures.”

On the possible outcome of the war, Bolton said Trump was “desperate to come out” but could not declare a serious victory as long as the Strait of Hormuz was closed. He said it would be “appropriate” to step up actions to open the Strait of Hormuz more quickly and bring Gulf oil to global markets.

Trump wants to “annoy” Europe with Greenland claims

Regarding Trump’s statement “we need Greenland,” Bolton said he believed Trump “just wanted to annoy the Europeans.” He considers an actual military capture of Greenland to be unlikely and said that in such a case, Trump would “be removed from office”; even the Republican Party would not support such military action. “I think we’re pretty busy in Iran right now and I hope the president gets this done,” Bolton said.