Iran conflict: Escalation stopped: Trump now has to be measured by this

The foreign and domestic political pressure on the 79-year-old had recently increased day by day – also under the impression of weak poll numbers a few months before the important midterm elections in November.

Trump’s martial threats shortly before the expiration of his ultimatum – to bomb Iran into the Stone Age and let an entire civilization collapse if the “fucking” Strait of Hormuz is not opened – increased calls in the USA for the president’s removal. Democrats in rows demanded a commitment from Republicans in Congress and Trump loyalists in the Cabinet to take action against the president.

Trump is selling the ceasefire as a success. And what is Israel doing? Just hours after the agreement, the army began carrying out heavy attacks across southern Lebanon. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasizes that the ceasefire does not refer to Israel’s operations against Hezbollah. According to the Fars news agency, Iran is already considering revoking the ceasefire in protest.

But even if it holds, there are still key problems for the president that he will have to work on solving:

Iran’s highly enriched uranium

Trump named various war goals – but one thing ran through him like a mantra: “You will never have a nuclear weapon.” In the USA and internationally, one question was discussed again and again throughout the war: What will become of the highly enriched uranium that is said to be located deep beneath Iran’s nuclear facilities?

Before Israel and the USA carried out air strikes on Iran in June last year and also bombed three nuclear facilities, Tehran had more than 400 kilograms of uranium with a purity of 60 percent, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). More than 90 percent is needed to build nuclear weapons. According to IAEA chief Rafael Grossi, the uranium is likely to be located mainly in underground tunnels and storage facilities at the nuclear facilities in Isfahan and Natans.

It will be difficult for Trump to sell the war that began at the end of February as a success if he fails to get this uranium out of Iran. The US President seems to be aware of this: the morning after the ceasefire was announced, he wrote on the Truth Social platform that the US, in cooperation with Iran, would recover and remove all of the deeply buried uranium. Whether Iran was actually prepared to do this initially remained completely unclear.

Trump also assured in his post: “There will be no uranium enrichment.” This statement makes it clear how far apart the publicly expressed positions of the USA and Iran are. According to Trump’s spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt, the basis for the upcoming negotiations on a final agreement to end the war is a ten-point proposal submitted by Iran. According to the Tasnim news agency, Iran insists on being allowed to enrich uranium. It currently seems highly questionable that the USA and Iran will reach an agreement on this matter – let alone within two weeks.

The price of oil and the Strait of Hormuz

But another problem also hurts: energy prices, which have skyrocketed since the start of the war. If the Strait of Hormuz is not permanently and freely navigable, this will likely continue to be felt at gas stations and keep cost pressure high in many industries. Iran continues to retain control of the strait, which is important for energy transport. The managing director of the think tank Center for a New American Security, Richard Fontaine, points out to the New York Times that Iran is now in a better position than before the war. Before that, Iran had no control over the strait.

Trump referred to considerations that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could be secured jointly by the USA and Iran. Exactly how he imagined this would initially remain unclear.

Richard Meade from the Lloyd’s List Intelligence platform, which specializes in analyzes and data on shipping, expressed doubts in the British “Guardian” as to whether shipping companies would even decide to allow their ships to pass through the strait quickly in the confusing and fragile situation. Unless shipping companies had clarity about the conditions for passage, they would essentially wait.

Other experts also point out that it could take longer for oil transport through the strait to return to pre-war levels. This could become a problem for Trump, who has repeatedly reiterated that the increased prices are a short-term development. He doesn’t have much time left.