Disguised in shipments and through a third country: Iran’s attempt to rehabilitate itself

American intelligence estimates that China plans to deliver new air defense systems to Iran in the coming weeks, according to three sources who spoke to CNN this morning (Saturday). The report comes against the background of China’s assistance in mediating the ceasefire between the US and Iran.

According to CNN, US intelligence highlights how Iran may use the ceasefire as an opportunity to modernize certain weapons systems with the help of key foreign partners. Two sources told the website that there are signs that Beijing is working to route the shipments through a third country to disguise their true origin.

In the meantime, the Wall Street Journal reported that American intelligence estimates that Iran still has thousands of missiles left that could be used after the extraction and use of launchers from underground sites. In addition, the main assessment is that Iran is taking advantage of the ceasefire to restore its missile system.

According to CNN, the systems that China plans to transfer are anti-aircraft missile systems known as MANPADs, according to the sources. These are systems that are effective against American planes that move at low altitudes and are not heavy and massive air defense batteries that endanger the Air Force planes.

A spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington said in response to CNN: “China has never supplied weapons to any party in the conflict. The published information is incorrect.”

“As a large and responsible country, China consistently fulfills its international obligations. We call on the American side to refrain from making baseless claims, creating malicious connections, and sensationalizing activities. We hope that the relevant parties will do more to help reduce tensions.”

During Monday’s press conference, Trump revealed that the American fighter jet that was shot down in Iran was hit by a “heat-guided shoulder-fired missile.” Iran claimed for its part that it used a new air defense system to shoot down the plane. It is not clear if this is a system made in China.

In a CNN report it was described that the delivery of the system would mark an escalation in China’s support for Iran since the war began at the end of February. During the campaign, Chinese companies continued to sell dual-use technology to Iran, which allows Iran to build and improve its weapons, according to sources.

One of the sources familiar with the intelligence said that China sees no real strategic value in openly entering the war and trying to protect Iran from the US and Israel. According to the report, the Chinese estimate that Iran will not be able to win the war. Instead, Beijing is trying to position itself as a friend of Iran – on whose oil it is largely dependent – while remaining neutral externally so that it can maintain a space of denial the day after the war.

Sources said the Chinese could also argue that air defense systems are defensive rather than offensive in nature, differentiating their support from Russia’s. Moscow provided support to the Iranian regime throughout the war in the form of intelligence transfers that helped Iran proactively attack American forces and assets in the Middle East, CNN reported.