Jokes about Vance, a blow to Putin and Israel: the losers in Hungary

After 16 years in power, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was defeated yesterday (Sunday) in the elections by a large majority, and will pass the reins to his opponent Petar Medyar. Medyar is expected to win 138 seats out of 199 in parliament – an absolute majority that gives him broad power to carry out reforms in the country and change the constitution after long years of Orban’s rule.

In his victory speech, Medyar told an enthusiastic crowd of supporters on the banks of the Danube that “Hungarians today said yes to Europe, yes to a free Hungary”, and called on the members of the establishment loyal to Orban to resign, led by the President of the Supreme Court and the Attorney General. On the other hand, Orban accepted the results and said that the Fidesz party led by him will serve the country from the opposition. According to the results, Fidesz is expected to win only 55 seats.

The elections in Hungary did not only affect the local arena, but also created a series of winners and losers in the European and international arena, with a real division that they created worldwide between right and left, or conservatives and liberals.

Among the notable winners are the leaders of the European Union, who are happy to say goodbye to one of the most challenging leaders for them in recent years. Orban often used his veto power to delay major decisions in Brussels, including economic aid to Ukraine or moves against Israel, and was one of the most prominent voices against the Union’s policies. Immediately after the loss, satisfaction was heard at the European top, with a clear message that Hungary chose to return to the European track.

“Hungary has chosen Europe”, Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, celebrated last night. Senior leaders in the European Union, including French President Macron and German Chancellor March, rushed to congratulate, as did Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who himself won in 2023 against many odds against the conservative government that introduced tough laws and reforms in the country.

The Prime Minister of Poland congratulates Medyar on his victory

Ukraine also benefits from the result, but not fully. This year Orban vetoed a 90 billion euro loan that was supposed to help Kiev in the war with Russia. Medyar is expected to remove this blockade and renew cooperation with the Union, but at the same time he made it clear that he opposes the transfer of weapons or Hungarian money to Ukraine, and even opposes the acceleration of its accession to the Union. He also plans to bring the issue to a referendum – a move that could delay the process.

During the election campaign, Orban tried to scare the voters that electing Madyar would result in “Zelensky forming the government” and promote a narrative that his loss in the elections means that the Hungarian army is likely to be sent to war against the Russian army.

Among the winners are also the journalists and doctors in Hungary. Independent journalists operated under difficult conditions after most of the media in the country came under government control, but managed to reveal details that damaged the government, including the use of intelligence services against the opposition and sensitive ties with Moscow. In the health sector, Medyar promised to increase public investment by 1 billion euros a year, after years of neglect that led to heavy workloads, shortages of equipment and the flight of professionals.

On the other hand, there are also quite a few clear losers. At their head are US President Donald Trump and senior members of his administration. Vice President JD Vance even arrived in Budapest days before the elections and expressed confidence in his victory, while President Donald Trump gave him a series of statements of support and promised financial aid, not to mention electoral bribery, as he successfully did in the parliamentary elections in Argentina. Orban’s loss was seen as a significant blow to a key Trump ally in Europe.

Quite a few jokes about Vice President Vance have already been published online. “Criticizes the Pope (Franciscus) – the Pope is dead, leads the negotiations with Iran – the negotiations collapse, flies to Budapest to strengthen Orban – Orban is defeated.” There are already quite a few jokes about Trump, for example that he wanted regime change in Iran, but got “regime change” in Hungary.

Even here in Israel, the results of the elections are viewed with disappointment, after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rudely interfered in the elections and expressed support for Orban last month. In addition to Netanyahu, his son Yair also spent a lot of time in Budapest recently and enthusiastically supported Orban. Alongside Netanyahu, other senior officials in Israel such as Minister Amichai Shikli expressed explicit support for Orban, as well as Israel’s ambassador to Singapore Eli Hazan, who went beyond diplomatic procedures and wished Orban success.

Israel itself has probably lost an important anchor in the European Union, and it is doubtful whether the new government in Hungary will continue to strongly and intensively oppose anti-Israeli initiatives in Brussels. Orban used to almost automatically veto EU moves against Israel that required unanimous consent. At this stage, Israel continues to enjoy the support of other countries, primarily Germany, but the change of government in Hungary is not positive from this point of view.

At the same time, the biggest loser of all is probably Russian President Vladimir Putin. In recent years, close ties between Budapest and Moscow have been revealed, including conversations between the foreign ministers of the two countries that also dealt with internal affairs of the European Union. Now, with the change of government, Russia is losing an important ally and a source of information from within the Union, which greatly influenced the decisions, for example, in the context of the war in Ukraine.

The right in Europe is also suffering a blow. Orban is considered a leading figure in this camp and someone who tried to influence the Union’s policy from within. His defeat hurts the power of other nationalist elements in Europe, who have lost a major partner in the political arena in Brussels. Medyar himself is admittedly identified with the conservative right, but is closer to centrist leaders on the continent. Orban’s defeat joins the defeat of Geert Wilders in the Netherlands and his relegation to the opposition benches, at the same time as the establishment of a liberal central government.

The elections in Hungary mark not only a dramatic internal change, but also a wider upheaval in the balance of power in Europe – with consequences that may continue to develop in the coming months.