Fierce battles and heavy losses: Is Ukraine on the way to a crushing loss?

Ukraine is close to losing Soldar, one of the key cities in the fighting in the Donbas region. Over the past day, various reports have been received regarding the advance of Russian forces, but in Kiev they claim that they continue to hold back the Russian attacks. Following the possibility of the fall of Soldar, there is also a real fear of the fall of the nearby city of Akhmat – which for many months has become the main scene of conflict between the armies of Ukraine and Russia.Russian sources claim during the last two days that the Russian forces are close to completing the occupation of the city, mainly through the Wagner group of the oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, who is close to Putin. The Ukrainian deputy defense minister reported last night that the Russians had launched a new and extensive attack on the city, known mainly for its salt industries, after previous Russian attempts to capture it had failed.

Kiev insists that they continue to successfully deal with Russian advance attempts, and report large amounts of bodies of Russian soldiers scattered in the area. According to the Ukrainians, the fighting method of the Wagner group in the city combines heavy artillery and the massive use of cannon fodder from those prisoners who were recruited into the ranks of the unit during the past months. According to this tactic, the Russians fire large-scale artillery fire at targets in the city, then throw in a large amount of conscripted prisoners, considered by the unit as “second-class combatants”, with no real regard for human life.

In Ukraine they claim that they continue to control the western part of the city and have successfully driven out the Russians. President Zelensky said tonight in his daily speech that the forces in Bakhmut and Soldar continue to hold their ground despite the widespread attacks of the Russians. He said that there are very intense battles in Soldar, and according to him, “there are no walls left in all the houses in the city, and the ground is covered with the bodies of Russian soldiers.”

Soledar. City battles continue, the city center under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Prigozhin said that at the moment Wagner is fighting for the Soledar administration building. Today, in the same location (literally 100-200 meters from the administration) pic.twitter.com/Qh1CKd1WnI

— Grahworin (@grahworin) January 10, 2023

#Soledar it says #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/qicWuBvwui

— Ukraine Will Win (@tomaburque) January 10, 2023

On the other hand, unofficial Russian sources claim that they are close to occupying 100% of the city. Also in the media and the transmission of information of the Russian forces, many photos and videos testifying to the large scale of victims on the spot are common. At this time, the Russian Ministry of Defense did not report at all the capture of the city or even close to it.

Soledar recently. He’s saying look it didn’t mess my hair! #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/uD6B8PLmCs

— Ukraine Will Win (@tomaburque) January 10, 2023

Ukrainian military analyst Oleg Zhdanov was quoted in a Reuters news agency report that the fighting in Soldar and Akhmat is “the most intense along the entire front,” with minimal progress for either side “in freezing weather conditions.” According to him, “many pro-Russian fighters remained in the field, dead or wounded.”

My friends from Volunteer Home went to Bakhmut to bring humanitarian aid there.

They talked to an elderly lady who stays in the town despite everything. She’s in constant danger every day.

: Volunteer Home/Instagram pic.twitter.com/tGwNaGpzAh

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) January 10, 2023

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) this morning quoted officials of the Ukrainian forces fighting in the city as saying that Russia still does not control it all, but the situation there is very difficult. According to this report, forces of the Wagner group continue to advance in several sectors in various efforts. At the same time, British intelligence reported the successful progress of Russian forces in Soldar over the past few days, but said that the pressure they are exerting will not help them in their attempt to capture nearby Bakhmut (about 15 km to the southwest), where Ukrainian forces still manage to maintain lines Stable protection.

Russia increases its forces in Belarus; Fear of another invasion

The Russian forces, led by the Wagner group, have been fighting for many months in the Bakhmut sector in Donetsk, and are trying to capture it without success. Many experts doubt the benefit that may accrue to the Russians from the occupation of the city in relation to the extent of the loss of lives, ammunition and expensive equipment. At the same time, with the advance of the Russians, there is also a claim that the occupation of these two key cities could lead to a more widespread collapse of the Ukrainian defense line in the region.

This assessment comes against the background of claims in Ukraine that Russia may launch an extensive recruitment operation of about half a million additional soldiers every day. All this may be added to the further assessment that the Russians will launch a new counterattack with the arrival of spring in a few weeks.

At the same time as fearing a large-scale mobilization, in recent weeks Russia has doubled the size of its forces stationed in Belarus. Official sources in Belarus indicate that the number of Russian soldiers in its territory is already close to 20 thousand, double the number that was there about a month ago. In addition to soldiers, Russia constantly continues to transfer combat equipment and weapons to Belarus, and it is estimated that the process of building up forces in its territory will continue. In this context, it is important to mention that as part of the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, the Russian army invaded Belarus with a force of about 40,000 soldiers.