Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi died on May 19 when the helicopter carrying him crashed into a mountainside in dense fog. The accident is a big shock to Tehran and the world, but most likely will not cause major disruption to Iran’s leadership structure, because the highest power in the country belongs to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
However, President Raisi passed away at an extremely sensitive time, when the confrontation between Iran and Israel was rapidly escalating due to fighting in Gaza, causing concerns about the risk of a large-scale conflict breaking out. in the Middle East.
Iranians gathered at Valiasr Square in the center of Tehran to express their grief over the death of President Ebrahim Raisi on May 20. Image: AFP
On the day Iran found President Raisi’s body, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, leader of the far-right party in the country’s ruling coalition, called for troops to be sent into Lebanon if Hezbollah did not withdraw from the border. The Israeli army and Hezbollah forces have continuously engaged in small-scale fighting in this area for many months.
Violence is also increasing in the Red Sea, where Iran-backed Houthi forces continuously launch missiles and drones (UAVs) at passing cargo ships, despite the US-led coalition’s repeated attacks. goal of this group.
Tensions have never been so high when Iran, under orders from President Raisi and Supreme Leader Khamenei, launched hundreds of UAVs and missiles into Israel in response to an airstrike on the consulate in Syria that killed two generals. Iran and five officers were killed.
Israel, with help from the US, UK, Jordan and other countries, intercepted almost all Iranian missiles and UAVs. In response, Tel Aviv launched an attack against the air defense radar system in the city of Isfahan, Iran, causing no casualties but sending a tough deterrent message.
While the confrontation between the two arch-rivals continues to intensify, “the old rules of the game are gone, but the new rules have not been fully established,” said Ali Vaez, Iran project director. and senior advisor at the International Crisis Group, headquartered in Brussels, Belgium.
The incident with President Raisi has added “uncertainty to the long-standing ambiguity between Iran and Israel, fueling the risk of miscalculation,” Vaez said.
The helicopter crash caused Iran to lose a tough politician loyal to Supreme Leader Khamenei, along with Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, forcing Tehran to make significant changes in its leadership.
Iran’s First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber, 69, became acting president pending the election of a new leader, expected next month. The Iranian Cabinet also appointed Ali Bagheri Kani, formerly the country’s top nuclear negotiator, as the new Foreign Minister.
When Iran’s allies and neighbors sent their condolences on May 20, Hamas forces also thanked Tehran for its support in the war with Israel.
Hamas said President Raisi and Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian had “made significant political and diplomatic efforts to prevent Israeli aggression against the Palestinian people”.
Over the past 7 months, Iranian-backed armed groups across the Middle East have continuously carried out attacks that they claim are aimed at revenge against Israel for its military campaign in Gaza or against the US and its international allies. main of Tel Aviv. The violence has led to fears of a persistent regional conflict, although Iran has repeatedly signaled that it is trying to avoid that scenario.
Each attack and counterattack threatens to spark a larger conflict. “It is a flammable mixture that can be triggered by unexpected events, such as a helicopter crash in Iran,” commentator Joseph Krauss from the news agency AP said.
Many fear that “Iran’s regional adversaries may see this as an opportunity to push the envelope,” Vaez noted.
Hamidreza Azizi, an expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said that concerns about the risk of attack at this sensitive time will create a high level of vigilance and precaution in Iran, even lead to extreme actions.
“Confusion will increase in the country,” he said. “There will be a period of uncertainty until the next president is chosen.”