The decision to dissolve the parliament and hold early elections was made by President Macron so suddenly that many allies in his party felt shocked and confused.
In response to the defeat by the far-right in the European Parliament elections, French President Emmanuel Macron caused a stir by announcing the dissolution of parliament and holding an early general election.
Mr. Macron bet big with this move, hoping it would help his party gain the initiative and prevent the rise of the far right. But it was introduced so suddenly that even parliamentarians and officials of Mr. Macron’s Renaissance party were shocked and did not understand what the President was planning with this plan.
President Macron’s allies fear he could lead them to disaster, with early elections not only threatening to topple his government, but also imploding European politics at a time when sensitive. Mr. Macron’s bet is also very risky, as the French public increasingly alienates him, which was partly shown in the European Parliament elections.
French President Emmanuel Macron spoke at a press conference in Paris on June 12. Image: AFP
Some members of the Renaissance party expressed anger at the President’s decision, others tried to understand the political logic behind it. Observers believe that this will cause a lot of confusion among the very people that Mr. Macron needs to win over.
“The Elysee Palace does not really understand the ‘anti-President’ mood in France,” said an anonymous official from a parliamentary group in the Renaissance party.
According to a source familiar with the matter, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal and National Assembly Speaker Yael Braun-Pivet both oppose holding early elections.
“We were shocked and angry when President Macron announced his decision. It felt like he was sending us to fight a losing battle,” said Christophe Marion, a Renaissance Party parliamentarian.
“You will not see Macron’s face on my campaign posters,” declared a member of parliament from the French President’s coalition.
Faced with the frustration of his allies, President Macron held a press conference on June 12, accusing Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Front (RN) party of pursuing nationalism and anti-federalism. Europe and globalization.
“The RN Party is ambiguous about Russia and has the goal of withdrawing France from NATO. I cannot give the key to power to the extreme right,” he said, explaining the decision to hold early elections.
“I cannot pretend that nothing is happening. The rise of nationalists and demagogues is a danger not only for our country but also for Europe, as well as for France’s position in Europe and in the world,” he emphasized.
But many MPs and Renaissance Party officials believe that Mr. Macron’s calculation is risky and likely to worsen the party’s losses, while weakening any remaining prospects of promoting the party. economic agenda pursued by the President. It could even give more control to the far right.
The RN Party is leading the polls in the first round of voting with 35%, according to a survey released by Ifop on June 11. The Renaissance Party currently loses to its opponent by 17 percentage points, consistent with the election results in the European Parliament.
Many polls also show that people view President Macron as uncaring and authoritarian. On the other hand, anti-elite sentiment is also rising after a series of crises, such as the Yellow Vest movement and the Covid-19 pandemic, that hit France in recent years.
The numbers and public opinion have dampened the morale of the parliamentarians Macron needs to help him turn his fortunes around. They feel like they have been abandoned and that the party is not ready for the election campaign with less than three weeks left until the first vote, according to observers.
A spokesman for the French leader said all polls conducted since June 9 showed that people largely support this decision and the President sees it as a reliable sign.
An MP in the President’s party said they were saddened by the prospect of dozens of colleagues at risk of being dismissed from parliament after the election and were afraid to speak out for fear of being labeled traitors or cowards.
A senior official who worked in multiple ministries under the Macron administration said the president’s decision was jeopardizing some of France’s international priorities, such as efforts to tackle climate change. A diplomat said France is trying to push the EU to close as many deals as possible this month, before the RN can win the upcoming election and take control of the government.
In text message groups, civil servants are trying to explain the constitutional provisions in case France has an RN prime minister, especially whether President Macron will still represent France alone at congresses. EU summit or not.
Prime Minister Attal on June 11 met with allied parliamentarians in an effort to unite them. According to a source familiar with the matter, he admitted that the decision from the President was “brutal” for parliamentarians and staff, who will have to struggle with the election campaign. He urged them never to think that the outcome was predetermined.
However, senior figures in President Macron’s support base are openly questioning the decision he made. President of the French National Assembly Braun-Pivet told the channel on June 10 France 2 that she thought choosing “another path” would be better.
Prime Minister Attal, 35, was appointed in January as President Macron sought to reform the government. He was chosen partly to counter the influence of 28-year-old RN leader Jordan Bardella, who will succeed Marine Le Pen from 2022 and has helped the far-right expand its influence significantly among young people. However, President Macron’s party still suffered a heavy defeat.
President Macron has a maximum of 40 days from the dissolution of parliament to the first round of voting. But instead, he decided to hold elections in 20 days, to put maximum pressure on his opponents, but also create pressure on his own party. Some MPs from the Renaissance party have decided not to run for re-election.
After seven years in power, there is a growing sense among those closest to President Macron that the end is near.
“Either achieve an overwhelming majority or we risk a governance crisis,” French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told the channel. BFM TV on June 11.
While Macron sees an early election as the only way to push back the far-right wave and rally mainstream voters of all factions behind him, fears of the opposite scenario loom large. his closest allies.
“If the President puts himself in front of the storm, it will be a huge risk,” commented Mathieu Gallard, research analyst at Ipsos. “What is certain is that he will turn many people against him.”
Early polls show that President Macron’s party could once again be defeated when voters cast their ballots in two rounds of parliamentary elections taking place on June 30 and July 7.
A real scenario is emerging that the Presidential coalition could even be relegated to third place in French politics, behind the right and left.
For many of his allies and former supporters, President Macron’s extraordinary belief in himself has now become a “curtain” that prevents the French leader from seeing the consequences he has created.
The decision to hold early elections “is the delirious act of someone defeated by defeat,” said a former Elysee Palace official.
Tensions within the coalition supporting President Macron are so high that even his closest allies are calling on him to take a step back. Moderate MP Francois Bayrou, an important ally and one of President Macron’s most ardent supporters, went to the Elysee Palace on the evening of June 10 to convey the message that Macron “must not get too involved in election campaign”.
Bayrou even called on Renaissance party lawmakers to “de-Macronize” or separate from the President.
“The more he talks, the more points we lose,” emphasized an advisor to a Renaissance Party congressman.
This is an unprecedented change in President Macron’s party platform. The Renaissance Party, which emerged with Macron, has long been considered his personal “temple” and would not exist without him.
Despite concerns from his party, President Macron has his own plan for the early election campaign and remains confident as usual.
“I will rush into the fight to win,” he told Figaro magazine earlier this week.
But the risks are very clear, according to observers. President Macron was deeply involved in the election campaign for the European Parliament, but received disappointing results for his party.
“The Renaissance Party has been disastrous despite the strong participation of President and Prime Minister Gabriel Attal in the election campaign,” said Gallard from Ipsos. “They did not have the strength to mobilize voters, but next time, the stakes will be much higher with the possibility of forming a government led by the RN party for the first time.”
Macron often likes to take risks in his political career. His rise from junior adviser to economic minister and then president is a story of luck and the ability to make well-timed bets.
But President Macron has now suffered two consecutive defeats, in the parliamentary elections in 2022 and again on June 9 with the European Parliament elections.
“Emmanuel Macron has lost the aura he had in 2017,” when he was first elected, Gallard said. “And we can clearly see how difficult it is for the President to communicate how he leads the country.”
President Macron explained his decision in a challenging way. “France needs a clear majority in peace and harmony. At its core, being French is choosing to write history, not let history control it,” he declared when announcing the dissolution of parliament.
So what will happen if he fails? The far-right RN party will become the leading force in the French parliament for the first time. President Macron’s coalition will be on par with the left-wing bloc. Dozens of his parliamentarians could lose their seats.
“We are being thrown under the bus because of his mistakes,” said one Renaissance party adviser.