Russia is laughing at the conference on the Bürgenstock, but is following closely what will happen there. On Friday, Putin unexpectedly made new, completely unacceptable demands.
Russia is trying everything to put the conference on peace in Ukraine on the Bürgenstock in a bad light. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke disparagingly of a “meeting among equals” after the meeting of the foreign ministers of the BRICS states in Nizhny Novgorod. Those present agreed that one-sided approaches would achieve nothing. From the very beginning, Moscow had nothing good to say about the Swiss efforts and immediately stressed that it would not take part, regardless of whether it was invited or not.
Better to be a victim than a spoilsport
Russia has remained true to itself on the issue, but is now opportunistically portraying itself as a victim of circumstances. “We were not invited,” said President Vladimir Putin at the end of his visit to China in May in the northern Chinese city of Harbin. So there is no way we can have a say. Moscow does not want to be seen as a spoilsport, but as an excluded party. This is tactically clever, because it is clear that friends, partners and self-appointed mediators from the circle of non-Western states would also prefer to see the war in Ukraine come to an end sooner rather than later.
First, Russia tried to dissuade them from taking part in the Bürgenstock summit. It was successful with China, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and others. Those who are travelling to Switzerland but share Moscow’s scepticism about the event, such as Turkey or India, are now expected to bring Russia’s perspective and serve as Russia’s eyes and ears. But to expect that the results of the conference could impress Russia’s leadership and population and prompt them to reflect on their approach to Ukraine and the West is completely unrealistic.
Russian conditions
The Russian leadership, experts and propagandists close to it are spreading the view that Russia’s opponents have to deliver, not Moscow. They see Russia in a position of strength and the West in a dead end. Ukraine is not even perceived as an independent actor. Only when the Europeans in particular have recognized their hopelessness will the time be ripe for negotiations, wrote Sergei Krylov, a former deputy foreign minister and Russian ambassador to Germany, in an essay recently. The Russian demands would then have to be based on Putin’s speech of February 24, 2022 and on the documents on “security guarantees” for Russia from December 2021.
Krylov’s opinion does not necessarily reflect Russia’s official position. However, Putin and senior officials attach conditions to their constantly repeated willingness to talk. Moscow only wants to enter into a negotiation process based on taking Russian interests into account. Putin said what he means by this at the economic forum in St. Petersburg, among other places. He named the alleged negotiation results of the peace talks in Istanbul in spring 2022 and the “territorial realities” as conditions for the resumption of talks.
In an appearance before Russian diplomats in Moscow on Friday, he was even more specific: the start of negotiations would have to be preceded by Kiev’s military withdrawal from the entire territory of the already annexed areas in Donbass and southeastern Ukraine, which are constitutionally enshrined as part of Russia, as well as the renunciation of NATO membership. Russia would then silence its weapons. These conditions go far beyond a freezing of the front and are undoubtedly impossible for Ukraine to fulfill.
After Putin’s appearance in St. Petersburg, the Polish political scientist Daniel Szeligowski reminded everyone what this would amount to: in fact, the demands meant the capitulation of Kiev, Russia’s control over the political processes in Ukraine and the division of the country into a residual Ukraine and territories that would fall to Russia. Putin would have probably achieved one goal in this way – and would also leave the square with the certainty of being the victor in the fight against the West and its ideas of freedom and international law.
For propaganda, Ukraine does not exist
However, Putin and his apologists have repeatedly made it clear that they are aiming to destroy everything Ukrainian. On the Russian national holiday on June 12, former President Dmitry Medvedev distributed an animated graphic in which the Russian flag slowly spreads from east to west and finally covers the entire Russian Federation. The territory of Ukraine, which Medvedev always refers to only with the attribute “former”, is completely absorbed in it.
He had previously presented a map on which Ukraine was largely divided between its neighbouring countries. It is no great secret that Russia is thirsting for the Kharkiv region in the north-east and the entire Black Sea coastal strip with the port city of Odessa, in addition to the already occupied territories.
Putin has recently also claimed that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has lost his legitimacy and that the constitution does not allow for an extension of his term of office, even in times of war. His five-year term actually expired on May 20. But Putin’s allegations have no legal basis. They serve to distract and wage psychological warfare, just like the rumors repeatedly spread by Russia that the West is tired of Zelensky and is preparing his successor.
Relaxation is an illusion
In any case, Putin does not show any real desire for peace. Otherwise he would not set completely unrealistic preconditions for it. In the West, it is easy to forget that the Russian regime is not only waging war against Ukraine, but also internally, against all dissidents in Russian society. Anyone who rebels is physically and morally destroyed. That is why there was so much devastating symbolism in the death of Alexei Navalny in the prison camp.
Over the past two to three years, the state has been systematically geared to the needs of warfare and coordination. The majority of the population has adapted to this and, actively or passively, shares at least the anti-Western sentiment. There may be a demand in society for the end of the “special operation”. However, the majority does not want to give up the already annexed areas in eastern Ukraine. The ideologization and indoctrination would continue even after the fighting in Ukraine had ceased. They will shape the next generations.
A return to the situation before February 24, 2022 is not conceivable in the foreseeable future, either within Russia or in relations with the West, even if the conference on the Bürgenstock were the start of further rounds of talks, including Russia. The process of détente between East and West fifty years ago, which is often cited as a model, was not immediately preceded by any acts of war.
New world order
For Russia, an end to the war against Ukraine would have to go hand in hand with a new security policy in Europe. Putin spoke on Friday of a new Eurasian security architecture. From Putin’s point of view and experts close to the state, Western support for Ukraine is an expression of a desperate clinging to an old, already lost world order. Only when the West admits its defeat and Russia, China and other emerging powers are given their rightful place in a new world order will Moscow have achieved its goals.
Western observers may find these ideas unrealistic, confused or even ridiculous. It would be better to take them seriously. Putin’s Russia is convinced that its actions are correct, and the past two and a half years have strengthened its stance.