The SIPRI Institute (International Peace Research Institute) published today (Crimson) his annual report, which contains a worrying overview of the state of arms and international security. The main findings of the SIPRI report for 2024 indicate an increase in the number and types of nuclear weapons that various countries are developing, along with an increasing reliance on nuclear deterrence.
Nuclear weapons stockpiles are being strengthened around the world
The nine countries that possess nuclear weapons – the United States, Russia, Great Britain, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel – continue to maintain their nuclear weapons stockpiles. Some of them even deployed new nuclear weapons systems or capable of carrying nuclear weapons last year.
According to estimates, out of a total of 12,121 nuclear warheads in January 2024, about 9,585 are in military stockpiles for potential use. About 3,904 of these warheads were placed on missiles and planes – an increase of 60 compared to January 2023. The rest are in central warehouses.
About 2,100 of the deployed warheads are kept on high operational alert on ballistic missiles. Almost all of these warheads belong to Russia or the US, but for the first time, China is suspected of having a small amount of warheads on high operational alert.
“While the total global nuclear arsenal continues to decline as Cold War-era weapons are phased out, we unfortunately continue to see annual increases in the number of operational nuclear warheads,” said Dan Smith, Director of SIPRI. “This trend is expected to continue and even accelerate in the coming years, which is extremely worrying.”
India, Pakistan and North Korea are all seeking to develop the ability to deploy multiple warheads on ballistic missiles, as are Russia, France, the UK, the US and, more recently, China. for the destruction of a more significant amount of targets.
Tensions are growing between the nuclear powers
Russia and the US together hold almost 90% of all nuclear weapons. The size of their military stockpiles (ie usable warheads) appears to have remained relatively stable in 2023, although Russia is estimated to have deployed about 36 more warheads with operational forces compared to January 2023.
Transparency regarding nuclear forces has decreased in both countries following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and discussions surrounding nuclear weapons-sharing arrangements have received greater attention. Prominent were a number of public claims in 2023 that Russia had deployed nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory, although there is no unequivocal visual evidence of the actual deployment of warheads.
The arms race continues – China is increasing its nuclear power
SIPRI’s estimate of the size of China’s nuclear weapons stockpile has increased from 410 warheads in January 2023 to 500 in January 2024, and is expected to continue to grow. For the first time, China may also now be deploying a small number of peacetime warheads on missiles. Depending on how it decides to build its forces, China could have at least as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as Russia or the United States by the end of the decade, although its stockpile of nuclear warheads is expected to remain far smaller than either of those two countries’ .
“China is expanding its nuclear weapons stockpile faster than any other country,” said Hans M. Christensen, senior fellow at SIPRI’s Center for Nuclear Disarmament and director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS). “But most of the countries that possess nuclear weapons have plans or a significant push to increase nuclear forces.”
Great Britain, France and India
Although the UK does not appear to have increased its nuclear stockpile in 2023, its stockpile of warheads is expected to grow in the future as a result of the UK government’s announcement in 2021 to increase the limit from 225 to 260 warheads. The government also announced that it would no longer publicly disclose its nuclear weapons stockpiles. In 2023, France continued its plans to develop a third-generation nuclear ballistic missile submarine (SSBN), a new air-launched cruise missile, as well as refurbish and upgrade existing systems.
India slightly expanded its nuclear weapons stockpile in 2023. Both India and Pakistan continued to develop new types of nuclear weapons delivery systems in 2023. While Pakistan remains the primary focus of India’s nuclear deterrent, India appears to be placing increasing emphasis on long-range weapons, including Those capable of reaching targets throughout China.
North Korea
North Korea continues to prioritize its military nuclear weapons program as a central element of its national security strategy. SIPRI estimates that the country has now collected about 50 warheads and has enough fissile material to reach a total of up to 90 warheads, significant increases over January 2023 estimates.
“Like a number of other nuclear-weapon states, North Korea is placing a new emphasis on developing its tactical weapons stockpile,” said Matt Korda, co-investigator in SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Program and senior research fellow in the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists. “Thus, there is a growing concern that North Korea may want to use the weapon.”
Israel
Israel, which does not publicly admit to owning nuclear weapons, is also considered to have a nuclear weapons stockpile and appears to be upgrading its plutonium production reactor site in Dimona.
In February 2023, Russia announced the suspension of its participation in the 2010 New START Treaty to Measure and Limit Russian and American Strategic Nuclear Forces – the last remaining treaty limiting these strategic nuclear forces. As a countermeasure, the US also suspended the sharing and publication of treaty data.
In November, Russia withdrew its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), citing an “imbalance” with the US, which has not ratified the treaty since it was opened for signature in 1996. However, Russia confirmed it would remain a signatory and continue to participate in the work of the banning organization Comprehensive Nuclear Tests (CTBTO) Meanwhile, Russia continued to make threats regarding the use of nuclear weapons in the context of Western support for Ukraine. In May 2024, Russia conducted tactical nuclear weapons exercises close to the Ukrainian border.
“We have not seen nuclear weapons play such a prominent role in international relations since the Cold War,” said Wilfred Wan, director of SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Program. “It’s hard to believe that barely two years have passed since the leaders of the five largest nuclear-weapon states jointly reaffirmed that “a nuclear war is unwinnable and must not be waged.”