Cyprus fears escalation in the neighbourhood

Geography is destiny, and this also applies to Cyprus. The easternmost member state of the EU is located in a very complicated neighborhood. The government in Nicosia has had no official relations with Turkey in the north since Turkish troops invaded fifty years ago and the division of the island continues to this day.

In the east, it is less than 200 kilometers as the crow flies to chronically unstable Lebanon. The civil war-torn country of Syria is only 100 kilometers from the coast of the Turkish-occupied north of the island. At least geographically, Cyprus is part of a crisis region. However, this has so far had little effect on the residents’ sense of security.

«Operations Center for the Gaza War»

This could change. The escalating conflict in the Middle East, especially the possibility of war between Israel and Lebanon, is casting its shadow over the island.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan issued a blunt warning this week. Cyprus is on the verge of becoming a kind of operations center for the war in Gaza. This is clear from intelligence reports, Fidan said in a television interview. Anyone who takes part in the wars in the Middle East will be drawn into them. As a neighboring country, Turkey has no interest in such a development.

Only a few days earlier, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah had even threatened Cyprus directly. If Israel were to use Cypriot infrastructure in the event of a war against Lebanon, the country would be considered a party to the war, said Nasrallah. Hezbollah has more than 100,000 rockets, and Cyprus is within their range.

President Nikos Christodoulides responded that his country was in no way involved in the war in the Middle East. Cyprus was part of the solution, not the problem. The island state is the starting point of the humanitarian corridor for the delivery of aid to Gaza. Nicosia had certainly pushed for its establishment with strategic ulterior motives.

Maneuvers with Israeli forces

“The latest developments contradict Cyprus’ self-image as a neutral, safe country,” said Hubert Faustmann of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in Nicosia, which is close to the SPD. It is not at all clear what exactly the statements by Nasrallah and Fidan refer to.

Cyprus has intensified its cooperation with Israel in recent years, in the exploitation of raw materials, but also in security matters. The armed forces have carried out several joint maneuvers. This is a thorn in Turkey’s side. This was evident during the serious crisis over the maritime borders in the eastern Mediterranean and now again, as Turkish-Israeli relations have reached an all-time low due to the war in Gaza.

Hezbollah condemns any contact with Israel anyway. Two years ago, Nasrallah claimed that Israeli troops were practicing invading Lebanon on Cyprus because the island’s hilly hinterland has similar terrain.

There are also two British military bases on Cyprus. British fighter planes took off from there to defend against the missiles that Iran fired at Israel in April. In circles critical of Israel’s war in Gaza, there are also reports that the bases are being used to support the war effort. American special forces are also stationed at the British military bases.

In response to a parliamentary question, the government in London said that there were 57 flights from the Akrotiri base to Israel between October and February alone. However, these were exclusively for the transport of diplomatic delegations and humanitarian goods.

The specter of a wildfire

According to Harry Tzimitras of the think tank Prio in Nicosia, Hezbollah’s threats are only indirectly related to Cyprus. “There is a Greek saying: ‘If you can’t beat the donkey, beat the saddle.'” Nasrallah wants the Europeans to influence Israel not to start a war against Hezbollah, says Tzimitras. That is why he is painting the specter of a conflagration.

An attack on Cyprus would activate the mutual assistance clause of the EU Treaty of Lisbon. If the British military bases were targeted, this would even affect NATO, although Cyprus is not part of the alliance. The bases are considered extraterritorial territory of Great Britain. So far there are no signs that Iran, the real decision-making force behind Hezbollah, is interested in such a spiral of escalation, says Tzimitras.

A few months ago, Hezbollah tried to put pressure on the West through Cyprus. In May, the EU concluded a refugee agreement with Lebanon. Similar to the agreements with Tunisia and Turkey, the agreement provides for the Lebanese government to be paid money to stop the flow of irregular migrants.

Cyprus is the most important destination for refugees from Lebanon. In relation to the number of inhabitants, the island state was at times the EU country with the most irregular arrivals. Because Nasrallah was not part of the negotiations with the EU, after the signing of the agreement he called on Syrian refugees in the country to continue to cross over to Cyprus.

Concern about tourism season

Despite the recent escalation, most experts still consider the risk of Cyprus being drawn into the escalating Middle East conflict to be low. The majority of the population also shares this view. In any case, however, the events in the neighborhood are being felt.

The Cypriot Hotel Owners’ Association recently wrote a letter to the government pointing out the negative economic consequences of the discussion about Cyprus’ security. During previous major wars in the Middle East, the number of guests on the island had fallen. Geography is destiny.