Biden’s final nomination is complicated after the failed first debate with Trump but the rules work in his favor

The Democratic Party must ratify as soon as possible whether to launch its endorsement without cracks or open the door to additional candidates

The erratic performance of the president of the United States, Joe Biden, during his first debate with his Republican rival Donald Trump has complicated to a certain extent what until this past morning was a completely clear path for the president in the face of his final nomination at the convention Democrat from Chicago and his party’s plans to end it even before the event.

After the conclusion of the debate, numerous officials from both past and current electoral campaigns, as well as even Democratic Party legislators, all on condition of anonymity, expressed their dismay with the president’s lack of clarity of ideas and the way in which Trump exploited to their benefit the constant doubts about the president’s ability to command given his advanced age.

The situation reached such a point that those consulted floated specific names to replace Biden in case of emergency, such as those of the progressive outgoing representative for New York Jamaal Bowman, the Democratic governor of Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer, or the governor of California, Gavin Newsom. . No one, however, has publicly discussed such a possibility and, behind closed doors, they have declared their unwavering support for the president ahead of the convention that will begin on August 19; a ceremony in which, with the rules in hand, Joe Biden is practically invulnerable unless a couple of exceptional circumstances occur.

A POSSIBLE WITHDRAWAL

The first is for Biden to announce his withdrawal from the electoral race and, with it, the annulment of the entire primary process. Biden has obtained some 3,900 delegates in recent months, more than enough to guarantee the nomination in the end. It is a personalistic process — the votes went directly to Biden — that would be meaningless if the president finally decides to abandon the electoral race.

If this happens, the convention would enter an emergency mode, with the immediate convening of the plenary session of the National Committee of the Democratic Party, some 500 members assigned to decide a new candidacy process and the 4,000 delegates mentioned would take a backseat in favor of the called superdelegates, about 700 representatives and senior officials of the party with the greatest voting weight.

For this scenario to occur, however, Biden would have to publicly announce that he is leaving, and at the very least, experts consulted by NBC assume that the then-outgoing president would exert extraordinary influence on the process of choosing the new candidate, taking into account that the current president of the National Committee, Jaime Harrison, is a devoted ally. Biden’s successor would not necessarily have to be the country’s vice president, Kamala Harris, whose position does not give her any advantage in this crisis scenario.

DESERTION

The other possibility is that a majority of delegates withdraw their support for Biden, at the opening of a procedure marked by total uncertainty because the rules in this regard only apply in the event that the candidate dies, or resigns, or becomes incapacitated. Nothing contemplates a generalized rejection against a candidate for the nomination, least of all of Biden’s caliber.

In this case, the process would be similar to that of voluntary withdrawal, but in an even more chaotic scenario in which the superdelegates would have greater importance, especially considering that they are only qualified to vote if the replacement candidates do not obtain the 3,933 delegates to win the nomination in the first round.

All of this is happening against the clock. The convention begins on August 19, days after some states in the country close the deadline for presidential candidacies. Strange as it may seem, it is a recurring issue that both parties have historically resolved without any kind of friction to facilitate the development of the elections and prevent one of the two candidates from being left out of the race.

The problem is that the Republicans are holding their own convention next month, within the electoral time frame, and right now the Democrats are doubtful of their willingness to resolve this issue. Ohio is a case in point. The state House of Representatives, with a Republican majority, has not taken a position on the proposed law to extend the deadline for nominations beyond August 7.

No matter how polarized American politics has been over the last four years, the absence of a presidential candidate is an absolutely unthinkable phenomenon that also does not benefit either party in any way, but in this situation it represents a factor that could trigger certain alterations in the Democratic nomination calendar and forcing the party to ratify Biden as its candidate, against all odds, sooner than they had planned.