Von der Leyen’s dilemma between the Greens and the Fdi

The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen,having received the blessing of the European Council – with the opposition of the prime ministers of Italy and Hungary, Georgia Meloni and Viktor Orban – now it must conquer that of the European Parliament. And it will not be an easy game. The D-Day of the vote is July 18, in the first plenary session of this legislature in Strasbourg. On the 16th, the presidency of the European Parliament will be voted on. The starting point remains what is called the ‘platform’ of populars, socialists and liberals. Calculator in hand, there are 188 votes from the EPP; 136 from S&D and 75 from Renew. In total 399 out of 720. The absolute majority needed is 361. The 38-vote margin is not enough to face the test of the secret ballot with serenity. The outgoing Parliament closes with an ‘Ursula majority’ of 417 seats. And those who try to make predictions, take into account a percentage of snipers of 10-15%: in absolute values, about fifty votes are at stake. At the EPP congress in Bucharest, von der Leyen was nominated spitzenkandidat with a percentage of snipers of 18%. The French delegation of the Republicans (six seats) and the Slovenian delegation of the former Prime Minister, Janez Jansa, (four seats) have already announced their vote against. Five years ago, the German leader obtained approval with a margin of just nine votes, thanks among other things to the support of the delegation of the 5 Star Movement (14 seats then, now 8) and of the Polish PiS of the former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, now certainly against (25 seats in 2019, now 20). These are intense days of confrontation for von der Leyen. He is now in the corridors of Parliament every day: he has already met the S&D and Renew presidencies. On 4 July you will attend a meeting with all the group presidencies. He already has an appointment with the Greens on his agenda and will certainly speak with the Left group. “I will go to everyone who invites me,” she assured her. In the last legislature you did not only speak with the Identity and Democracy group (of which the League and the French National Rassemblement are part).

The goal of the president who is aiming for a second term is “to build a broad majority for a strong Europe” and to do so she is aiming to convince the parliamentarians one by one. “I will discuss with individual MEPs and with national delegations, because the vote often takes place based on the country of belonging”. So, to make a hypothesis, von der Leyen could discuss with the delegation of Fratelli d’Italia (24 deputies) and not with that of Pis, even if both have a home in the conservative Ecr group. The real unknown concerns the Greens (53 seats). In the last legislature they voted in line with the Ursula majority 80% of the time. However the president of the EPP group, Manfred Weber (who is also president of the party), continues to accuse them of being “not very reliable” because for example they voted against the reform of the Stability Pact and against the Pact for Migration and Asylum. They reply that reliability is guaranteed by entering the majority. In any case, those dossiers were approved – albeit with some distinctions – by Fratelli d’Italia. A large part of the Popular Party would prefer to be able to count on the external support of Fratelli d’Italia and a part of the Conservatives instead of welcoming the Greens into the Ursula majority because at that point the EPP would end up in a minority especially when it comes to the issues of the Green Deal: the majority enlarged to the Greens would have 453 seats of which ‘only’ 188 would be Popular Party.

Neither option is risk-free: the Greens will ask not to backtrack on climate policies and this could create friction with the EPP, while the ultraconservatives with whom Meloni shares the group are a red line for socialists and liberals. To convince Meloni, von der Leyen could put on the table – in a completely informal way so as not to open the door to requests from other countries – the offer of a vice-presidency or a prominent commissioner in the next team of the College, in line with Italy’s role. Once confirmed, von der Leyen will have to officially start negotiations to form her new team. Each country will have to present two proposals to Brussels, one man and one woman, and she will put the puzzle together respecting gender balance and assigning the various political portfolios to the most suitable profiles. In the meantime, there are already some confirmations: la Lettonia per Valdis Dombrovskis ans Slovakia for Maros Sefcovic (both current vice presidents). The names of Michael McGrath for Ireland (current Finance Minister) and Teresa Ribera for Spain (Minister for Ecological Transition). The current Commissioner for the Internal Market, Thierry Breton,should be confirmed by France. If von der Leyen does not overcome the Strasbourg wall, an unprecedented institutional crisis would open up. Her candidacy would lapse and the leaders of the European Council would have to meet again within a month, in the middle of summer, to propose another candidate.