Marine Le Pen’s far right leads the polls and Emmanuel Macron seeks survival

France is heading into uncharted and disturbing territory on its final day of the election campaign and with summer finally arriving in the country. If the polls are right, the recycled former National Front, now called the National Regrouping under Marine Le Pen, is not far from achieving a strong enough majority, which It is going to disrupt the governability and authority of President Emmanuel Macron.

RN has 36% of voting intentions, two days before the first round of the legislative elections, according to a survey by Elabe for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche published on Friday, June 28.

The New Popular Front, which brings together the socialist left, the communists, the ecologists and the radicals of Jean Luc Melénchon’s La France Insoumise, is in second place. It surpasses the Emmanuel Macron’s presidential party, which could lose more than 140 seats in the National Assembly.

A mistake by Macron in dissolving Parliament, after his defeat in the European elections. “An act of self-destruction” for his peers, which worries the democrats, who do not want to be trapped between the Lepenist ultra-right and the revolutionary Melenchonist ultra-left, which today is trying to tame the moderate socialism that has entered the Front.

Will young Jordan Bardella become prime minister in mid-July? Two days before the first round of legislative elections, the National Rally and its allies are far ahead in voting intentionsaccording to a survey by Elabe for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche today.

The far-right party is in first place with 36%, ahead of the New Popular Front (27.5%) which has made slight gains (0.5%) in one week.

Thirdly, Ensemble pour la République, the presidential party, remains stable, with 20% of voting intentions. As for the Republicans, 9% of those surveyed indicate that they will vote for them this Sunday.

According to this survey, the Elabe Institute predicts that the National Regrouping could obtain a solid relative majority, or even an absolute majority. The far-right party would be the leading force in the National Assembly with a number of seats between 260 and 295.

As the second largest force in the Assembly, the New Popular Front would obtain between 155 and 175 seats, while the presidential camp would suffer heavy losses. Elabe projects that the Juntos por la República coalition would obtain between 85 and 105 seats, compared to the 245 it currently has.

But these projections should be taken with caution, since the composition of the second rounds in the 577 electoral districts for July 7 is not yet known. Especially since some political parties have given voting instructions: the New Popular Front groups have asked block the far right in the second round.

But according to the Elabe survey, 53% of potential voters of the New Popular Front have no intention of following the voting instructions. A higher rate for voters of the presidential camp (70%) and the Rally (80%).

According to Elabe, only 26% of French people intend to follow the voting instructions they will receive during the second round. “If their candidate goes to the second round after finishing third, the majority of voters in the three main coalitions will not allow him to withdraw and ‘get in the way’,” the institute also notes.

In detail, 31% of voters in the presidential field want their candidate to withdraw in order to “block” the National Rally (25% to “block” the New Popular Front). The Republican front is stronger on the left: 40% of New Popular Front voters want a candidate to withdraw “to block the RN” if he comes in third place.

The sample of 2,004 people is representative of residents in mainland France aged 18 or over, including 1,871 registered on the electoral roll. It was conducted online from 26 to 27 June.

The representativeness of the sample was ensured by the quota method applied to the following variables: sex, age, socio-professional category, region of residence and urban area category. The margin of error is between 1.0 and 2.6 percentage points.

So far, the “Republican Vote” to stop Le Penism has worked. It has always managed to advance but never to become president or prime minister. This time, the party founded by Jean Marie Le Pen and recycled by his daughter Marine is making progress. The “Republican barrier” of the left or the center does not seem to be working.

Not only will he lose his relative majority, but President Emmanuel Macron will face a challenge to his authority on behalf of the National Regrouping, if they reach an absolute or defiant minority in Parliament.

Marine Le Pen on Thursday described the role of Commander of the Armies of President Emmanuel Macron as “honorary”. This means moving into the presidential domains, which traditionally in cohabitations he controls the Defense and French foreign policy.

Le Pen and her party will oppose sending French troops to Ukraine, as Macron has eventually promised if necessary.

An exit that does not go unnoticed. In an interview given to Télégramme this Thursday, former presidential candidate Marine Le Pen gave her vision of Jordan Bardella’s role if she were to win Matignon, at the end of the two rounds of the legislative elections on June 30 and July 7.

The young MEP, a leading figure in the French far right, hopes to become prime minister if his party wins an absolute majority in the Assembly. He also intends to govern in the field of defence, while the war in Ukraine continues to rage and France is one of the main allies.

But will he be able to do so? The Constitution clearly states, in Article 15, that “the President of the Republic is the Commander of the Armed Forces.” According to the same text, the Prime Minister is “responsible for national defense” and for “implementing the decisions taken by the Head of State in this field.”

The president is the commander in chief, he presides over the councils and higher committees of national defence and negotiates and ratifies treaties. But the government has control over the administration and the armed forces.

As for the presidential “reserved domains”, this is more an institutional practice that was imposed during cohabitation than a law. The president decides on the use of nuclear force, his country’s entry into war and the nomination of general officers.

National sovereignty in these cases is in the National Assembly and not in the Elysée. It is the majority, presidential or not, that sets the nation’s policy.

But it is seen that the defense is going to generate Major crises between Macron and Bardella,a son of Italian Algerian immigration, who worry the French at this time, if RN gets the majority.

In her interview, Marine Le Pen provided further details on how Bardella’s move could materialise. “For the president, head of the armed forces, it is an honorary title, since it is the prime minister who controls the money,” she said.

Bardella has no intention of fighting him, but has drawn red lines regarding Ukraine. The president will not be able to send troops. Does the tenant of the Elysée really only have an “honorary” role?

In the event of Jordan Bardella’s cohabitation in Matignon, the prime minister’s palace, the former presidential candidate believes that he would have “the means to oppose” through “budgetary control” the actions of the Head of State.

What will be Jordan Bardella’s government plan if he is appointed president of Matignon, in case of victory in the early legislative elections?

Invited on Thursday on France 2 to detail his future team during the last debate before the first round, together with Gabriel Attal (Ensemble) and Olivier Faure (PS-NFP), the president of the National Regrouping stated that he wanted to “unite, reunite to all French people, wherever they come from, whatever their past political choices.” And thus be the “prime minister of daily life” to put “the daily life of the French at the center of public action.”

To meet “a very strong demand for authority”, the 28-year-old MEP hopes to create “a government of national unity” in which “all the energies and all the capacities that are expressed in the country” will be concentrated.

With this grand ambition, Bardella promised “famous faces from the RN, from the Republicans” to “increase his majority”. And “people from civil society, who are sincere patriots who care about the sovereignty of France, the defence of our identity and allowing all French people to regain control of the country”.

Without going into more details, Bardella claims to have “named the positions.” “Evidently Eric Ciotti, the president of the Republicans, will be called upon to assume important responsibilities in this administration,” she said. Like other personalities “that the French will come to know.”

A concern is spreading in France among Muslims, children of immigration, blacks and foreigners. For lepenism, the problem is Islam, migrants, foreigners, French people of Muslim religion, and binationals, who occupy a workplace in the State. They will not be able to exercise it. Many Muslims have begun to flee France in recent days. They are afraid,who have lost their place even though they are French.

Joelle Dago is a French and black journalist from RMC, who interviewed Yaël Braun Pivet, the president of the National Assembly, on Friday morning. In the middle of the broadcast, crying, with enormous anguish, he asked her: “I don’t know which country I belong to. I feel stateless. I ask myself; am I French? It’s really complicated. What have you done with France? Did you know what to do with France when we gave you the key in 2017? Because tomorrow, I will have Bardella,” he concluded.

The president of the dissolved Assembly responded, uneasy: “Many of us feel your emotion. This is absolute disquiet and dismay. It is not just Franco-French. It is a deep-rooted movement. We have our share of responsibility, we are all responsible.”

When attacked in her Franco-Moroccan binationality, the former socialist minister of education of France, Najat Belkacem responded to the Lepenist deputy Roger Chudeau, who considered her position as minister “a mistake.”

“In a way, Roger Chudeau has done us a favour. That is what they want in power tomorrow. It will be reflected in all strata of society. For example, in the field of education, they can reproach a teacher for his origins in order to call into question his authority. Or in the public hospital, by demanding that he not be treated by nurses of foreign origin. This is what awaits us: have they woken up?” he asked.

It is not just public figures who are distressed in these hours. Letters of threats have arrived at schools, accusing the authorities of being left-wing, of being potential dictators. Racism and political persecution,with anonymous threats, has taken over the last hours of this campaign.