Moderate Pezeshkian in first round ahead

When the votes from the first round of the Iranian presidential election were counted on Saturday morning, one thing was clear: the only moderate candidate had at least achieved a partial victory. According to the official results, Masud Pezeshkian received 44 percent of the vote. This puts the reformer just ahead of his closest rival, Said Jalili – an arch-conservative hawk.

However, since neither of them achieved an absolute majority, the decision must now be made in a second round next Friday. A total of four candidates ran to succeed Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter accident a month and a half ago, as the highest government office in the Islamic Republic.

Apart from Pezeshkian, all of them were representatives of the conservatives. Jalili was joined by the current parliamentary speaker Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf and the former justice minister Mostafa Pour-Mohammadi. Both came in at the back of the pack. Two other conservative candidates had already thrown in the towel in the days before the election.

Voter turnout was once again extremely low

The selection of candidates had already been severely restricted by the conservative Guardian Council. Many pragmatic representatives were not admitted from the outset. Voter turnout was correspondingly low. Just 40 percent of all Iranians went to the polls – even fewer than in 2021, when Raisi won a landslide victory in an election that was also severely restricted and ignored by many.

After the arch-conservative Raisi, a moderate candidate could win again this time. The leading candidate, Pezeshkian, is considered moderate compared to Jalili, who comes from the security apparatus. The heart surgeon and parliamentarian from the northwestern Iranian city of Mahabad was once health minister under the reformist president Mohammed Khatami and is supported in his campaign by pragmatists such as former foreign minister Mohammed Javad Zarif.

During the election campaign, Pezeshkian was conciliatory. He criticized the heavy hand with which Iranian security forces had cracked down on protests that had broken out across the country in the fall of 2022 following the death of student Mahsa Amini in the custody of the morality police. He also advocated a more relaxed approach to the now extremely strict clothing regulations and promised to improve Iran’s relations with the West.

The President’s influence is limited

However, Pezeshkian is considered a loyal follower of the revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He also describes himself as a supporter of the powerful Revolutionary Guards, whose generals largely determine Iran’s security and foreign policy. Many Iranians who were disappointed by the leadership’s conservative-authoritarian course were therefore unmoved by the candidate. “Many of my friends have long since lost faith in the ability to reform the system,” says an Iranian exile about the lack of interest shown by her fellow countrymen at home.

At least in the second round, Pezeshkian would have to rely on a higher voter turnout if he wants to beat Jalili, who would then receive all the conservative votes. The fewer Iranians who vote, the greater the chance that the conservatives will win. At the same time, however, the Iranian leadership around Khamenei also seems to have an interest in higher turnout. The revolutionary leader himself has repeatedly called on Iranians to vote.

If Pezeshkian were to triumph in a second round of voting, his influence would be severely limited. Because the real power in the state – as Pezeshkian’s moderate predecessors Mohammed Khatami and Hassan Rohani had to painfully realize – lies with Khamenei and the commanders of the Revolutionary Guards. However, a more moderate president could ease the leaden mood that has prevailed in the country since the brutally suppressed protests two years ago.

On a collision course with the West

Khamenei and his inner circle could be counting on this. The aged revolutionary leader is currently concerned with his successor and is unlikely to be interested in internal unrest. But given the tense regional situation, a more moderate voice in the presidential palace could be very welcome to those in power. Not only has Iran been suffering from a serious economic crisis for years, it is also on a collision course with the West.

In view of the Gaza war, which was triggered by Hamas, which is supported by Tehran, the country is in danger of being drawn into a war with Israel and, in the worst case, even the USA. The two arch enemies already engaged in a direct exchange of blows in mid-April. Now the situation threatens to escalate again in view of the tensions in Lebanon, where the pro-Iranian Hezbollah militia has been waging a border war against Israel for months.