French President Emmanuel Macron unexpectedly dissolved parliament three weeks ago. The first round of voting will take place on Sunday. The most important questions and answers
The latest developments
- There are signs of a high voter turnout in the first round of the early parliamentary elections. By 5 p.m., 59 percent of registered voters had cast their ballots, the Interior Ministry in Paris announced. That is almost 20 percentage points more than at the same time in the regular parliamentary election two years ago. The polling stations are open until 8 p.m.
The backgrounds
The mood in France is nervous. Three weeks ago, President Emmanuel Macron unexpectedly dissolved parliament and ordered new elections. Macron’s reaction was to his party’s crushing defeat in the European elections at the beginning of June. The first round of voting is on Sunday, the second in a week.
Macron’s decision has shaken many French people up. In advance, more than two million voters obtained a power of attorney so that someone could represent them when they were unable to vote. That is five times as many as in the last election in 2022 – and indicates a high voter turnout.
How do the elections work?
The Assemblée nationale is elected by majority vote. This means that the candidates with the most votes in the respective constituencies compete in the second round of voting, and the candidate with the most votes gets the seat.
Three major political blocs have formed for the elections. The conservative Republicans are divided over the question of a coalition with the RN. Around 60 of the party’s candidates, including the president, have entered into an alliance with the RN. The rest tend towards the center.
But the conservatives will not decide the outcome of the election: the parties are running in three large blocs. On the left is the Nouveau Front populaire, which unites the four main left-wing parties. In the middle are Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance, sympathizers and the homeless conservatives. On the far right is the Rassemblement national, supported by the renegade conservatives.
In the polls, the Rassemblement national is well ahead of the Nouveau Front populaire, with the centre parties lagging far behind in third place.
Only after the second round of voting on July 7 will it become clear whether there will be a clear majority in parliament. In many constituencies, the runoff election will probably be between an RN candidate, a centrist and/or a left-wing candidate. The question will be how strong the willingness and willingness is to form an alliance against the RN and to make compromises – both among the candidates and among the voters.
What led to the new elections?
The right-wing nationalist Rassemblement national (RN) won the European elections in France on June 9 by a clear margin. The party received almost 32 percent of the votes cast, more than twice as many as Macron’s Renaissance party. For Macron, who positions himself as a major European politician, the defeat was a bitter blow.
Shortly after the first projections were published, the French President addressed his people. He said he had heard the voters’ message and would not leave it unanswered. Parliament would be dissolved and new elections would be held at the end of the month. He had confidence in the ability of the French people to make the right decision for themselves and future generations.
No one in France had expected such a step, probably not even those who had repeatedly called for the dissolution of the National Assembly over the past two years. After the initial shock, the party landscape began to move. It took less than four days for the three blocs to emerge.
Why did Macron decide to take this step?
Until the day of the European elections, the President had insisted that European elections only had European consequences. When he made his statement to the press three days later, he cited the situation in Parliament as an argument for his radical step. Since the last parliamentary election, governing has become difficult for Macron because his party lacked an absolute majority in the National Assembly.
The government has repeatedly been confronted with votes of no confidence, but these have never been successful. Macron said that he wanted to use the new elections to forestall an impending vote of no confidence in the budget debate in the autumn. France needs political clarity, said the president.
Why is the right so successful in France?
When Macron was elected president, he promised that with him at the helm there would no longer be any reason to vote for right-wing nationalist parties. But the group around the former leader of the RN, Marine Le Pen, is growing stronger and stronger. Many French voters are very dissatisfied with the president. According to a survey by the University of Sciences Po in February, only one in three people in France trusts politics. Almost 70 percent doubt that democracy in France fundamentally works.
Le Pen is addressing the people’s distrust by positioning herself as the voice of the anti-establishment. In recent years, she has also opened up her party’s issues: she tried to position herself as an advocate for the yellow vests (which she failed to do) and was at the forefront of the fight against the pension reform pushed through by Macron.
Le Pen has succeeded in making her party electable well into the middle class. RN politicians are trying to make their views appear less radical.
What will happen to Macron if his party loses the election?
Since the president in France is directly elected, Macron’s position is not affected by the election result. He will remain in office until 2027 and has so far ruled out an early resignation. However, there is a high probability that he will have to work with a head of government from another party in the future.
In France, it has often been the case that the president’s party is also the strongest force in parliament and thus provides the prime minister. So-called cohabitation, i.e. a prime minister and a president from different parties, has only occurred three times in the Fifth Republic.
The Prime Minister determines the day-to-day political business. If a party other than Renaissance wins a majority in parliament, Macron would only be able to set the pace in foreign policy and defense.