Record turnout in France, the far right aims for the government

Record turnout in France on the first day of voting for the legislative elections: according to the 5 pm survey, 59.4% of those entitled to vote voted, a 20% increase compared to the same period in 2022. To find a higher turnout, we have to go back to the 1986 legislative elections, when the mid-day turnout was 63.6%. The turnout in the first round at 8 pm is estimated at 69.5%, the highest since 1981, according to a survey conducted by the Elabe polling institute. The figure would be significantly higher than the 47.51% of the first round of the 2022 legislative elections and would come close to the result of the first round of the 1981 legislative elections, when 70.9% of those entitled to vote went to vote.

President Emmanuel Macron and far-right leader Marine Le Pen cast their votes in the first round of France’s parliamentary election pic.twitter.com/K0N2hFbnxk

— Reuters (@Reuters)
June 30, 2024

The midday figure of 25.9% “is the highest since the 1981 legislative elections,” Mathieu Gallard, director of research at polling firm Ipsos, told AFP. Reinforcing the strong turnout, the French Interior Ministry said more than 2.7 million proxies had been requested since June 10, four times more than two years ago.

First results from Overseas

Even abroad, where people vote much less than in metropolitan France, participation has increased and the first results have been published: the outgoing deputies of the centrist Liot group and those of the New Popular Front are leading in Guadeloupe and Guyana. In Polynesia, the autonomist candidate Moerani Frébault announced his election in the first round and would therefore be the first elected to the National Assembly.

In the meantime, all the big names voted this morning, starting with the president, Emmanuel Macron,who voted in Le Touquet (Pas-de-Calais) together with his wife, indulging, as usual, in a long walk with selfies and hugs. Marine Le Pen voted in Hénin-Beaumont (Pas-de-Calais), Jordan Bardella in Garches (Hauts-de-Seine), the former socialist head of state Francois Hollande in Tulle (Corréze), the Prime Minister, Gabriel Attalvoted in Vanves (Hauts-de-Seine) and will make a statement at the Reinassance party headquarters after 8pm. The French will be able to go to the polls until 6pm (or 8pm in large cities) immediately after the first results will be announced .

Most polls show that the Rassemblement nationalLe Pen is on track to win a majorityin the 577-member National Assembly. A high turnout is expected, with final opinion polls giving the RN between 35% and 37% of the vote, compared with 27.5-29% for the leftist alliance of the New Popular Front and 20-21% for President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist camp. Macron has called a government meeting for Monday to decide on a course of action ahead of the second round of voting on July 7.

Macron’s gamble

Macron’s decision to call early elections after the RN’s victory in the European Parliament elections has sparked uncertainty in Europe’s second-largest economy. In June the Paris stock market suffered its biggest monthly decline in the last two years, dropping 6.4%. In an editorial, the newspaper Le Monde called for,mobilization against the far right. “To yield to him any power means nothing less than running the risk of seeing everything that has been built and conquered in more than two and a half centuries gradually undone,” he writes.

Brice Teinturier, head of polling firm Ipsos, said there were two trends emerging from the campaign. “One is a dynamic of hope” with left-wing supporters and those of the Rassemblement National believing “there can be a change.” But Teinturier also highlighted “the negative politicization, the fear, the terror caused” by the RN and the far-left France Insoumise party, which is part of the left-wing coalition. Macron apparently hoped to surprise political opponents by presenting voters with a crucial choice about the future of France, but observers say he may have lost the gamble. Many have highlighted a spike in hate speech, intolerance and racism during the campaign. Speaking in Brussels on Thursday, Macron deplored “racism or anti-Semitism.”

Support for Macron’s centrist camp plummeted during the campaign, as left-wing parties put aside their squabbles to form the New Popular Front, a reference to the alliance founded in 1936 to fight fascism. Support for the far right has surged, with analysts saying Le Pen’s years of efforts to clean up the image of a party co-founded by a former Waffen SS member have paid off. The road to victory could be blocked if the left and center-right join forces against the Rassemblement National in the second round. If the far right were to obtain an absolute majority, Jordan Bardella could become prime minister in a tense “cohabitation” with Macron, as the president has repeatedly reiterated that he will serve the remainder of his second term until 2027, regardless of which party wins.