How the composition of the National Assembly will be defined in the second round

In Sunday’s elections, National Grouping and its conservative allies They obtained 33.15% of the votes, according to the Ministry of the Interior, which published the results on Monday. provisional results.

The left coalition New Popular Front (NFP) obtained 27.99% of the votes, making it the second largest political force in the country, ahead of the president’s group. Macron,the big loser in the elections with 20.04%.

The Republicans (LR)the traditional right-wing party, obtained only 6.57% of the votes.

What’s next? Here are the key points:

1.- How many constituencies are still in dispute?

The French National Assembly has 577 seats. and legislators are elected by district. In first round,For a candidate to win a seat, he or she must obtain more than 50% of the votes.

In Sunday’s elections, 37 RN deputies, 32 from the NFP have already secured their seats,two from the Macronist bloc and three for LR and its allies.

For the Second round All candidates who obtained more than 12.5% ​​of the votes and less than 50% have been classified, so in each district there may be two, three or more candidates. The seat will be taken by the one with the most votes.

The next Sunday National Grouping will be present in 485 constituencies. In the first round, the candidates of the extreme right They ranked first in 297 of them.

At this point, it should be noted that With at least 289 seats, a political party can secure an absolute majority in the French National Assembly.

The left-wing coalition qualified for the second round in 446 constituencies, and in 157 of them it came first on Sunday.

The President’s Block Macron will have candidates in 319 constituencies. In only 69 of them did it achieve first position.

2.- What is the strategy for the second round?

The leaders of the left coalition They have announced that they will withdraw their candidates who have finished in third place and who are competing with a far-right candidate with a chance of winning.

In this way, they want to cast their vote on the best positioned candidate with a chance of defeating the candidate. National Grouping.

While spokesmen for the centrist alliance of Macron They also stated that some of their candidates would resign before the second round in an attempt to block the National Rally.

The AP noted that this strategy worked in the past, when the party The pen and its predecessor, the National Front,were considered political pariahs by much of the public. But now the party has broad support across the country.

For its part, the National Group said on Monday that it is studying strategic movements to approach The Republicans to try to achieve an absolute majority.

3.- What are the possible scenarios?

And National Grouping gets the absolute majority,President Macron will be forced to appoint a prime minister from within this new majority.

This political scenario is called in France as “cohabitation“If it passes, the government will have to implement policies that are at odds with the president’s plan.

In recent times France had three cohabitations: between 1986 and 1988, Jacques Chirac He was prime minister of the socialist president François Mitterrand.

The second cohabitation,also with Mitterrand as head of state, was carried out by the neo-Gaullist Edouard Balladur,between 1993 and 1995.

The third It was under Chirac as president and the prime minister was the socialist Lionel Jospin, from 1997 to 2002.

In a government of cohabitation,The Prime Minister is accountable to Parliament, leads the government and introduces bills.

The president retains some powers on foreign policy, European affairs and defense. He is also the commander in chief of the armed forces and holds the nuclear codes, AP said.

Jordan Bardellathe far-right leader who could become prime minister if the National Rally wins an absolute majority, has already said that he intends to “be a prime minister of coexistence who is respectful of the Constitution and the role of the president of the Republic, but inflexible regarding the policies that we will implement.”

Bardella opposes the sending of French troops to Ukraine and rejects the delivery of long-range missiles and other weapons capable of striking Russian territory.

Macron’s term ends in 2027 and he has said he will not resign.

If no party achieves an absolute majority, Macron may appoint a prime minister from the parliamentary group with the most seats in the National Assembly.

If that scenario fits National Grouping,Marine Le Pen has already said she would reject the option, because it would mean that a far-right government could soon be overthrown by a vote of no confidence.

An unlikely option is that Macron promote a broad coalition of left and right.