Salvini bets on Orban’s Patriots, Meloni tries to shield Ecr

Matthew Salvini is increasingly closer to the ‘Patriots’ founded by Viktor Orban. A “right path” – as the League secretary defined it -, the one started by the Hungarian Prime Minister, together with the Austrians of the Fpo and the Czechs of Ano. The objective is the one that Salvini has been pursuing for years: that is, to give life to a large alternative group to the left in Europe. And the first step is to build an alliance open to those who have been excluded from the agreement on top jobs between the EPP, Socialists and Liberals, defined as a “coup d’état” by the Italian vice-premier. The desired result would therefore be the creation of a broader Eurogroup of Identity and Democracy,where the League currently sits alongside the French Rassemblement National.

The ‘Patriots for Europe’ already include Fpo, a historic ally of the League, one of the founders of Id, and, from today, the Portuguese from Chega,recently very close to the group born from the intuition of Salvini and Le Pen. While waiting to see what the RN will do – which may not choose before the outcome of the second round of the legislative elections on Sunday -, therefore, the member of the Northern League puts a chip on Orban’s project, which instead does not seem to interest the Brothers of Italy by Giorgia Meloni,at least at present.

FdI is in negotiations with its PiS allies, with whom it co-chairs the European Conservatives. However, the Poles could join the new ‘Patriots’, overcoming the historical distances with Orban, once considered too pro-Russian. “We are in negotiations with Ecr and this is the main element that will decide our future”, said, in recent days, the former Polish Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki,specifying that PiS is tempted to go “in both directions”. “I would say the probability is 50-50”, he explained, adding that “it is not guaranteed” that PiS will remain in ECR. There should be a decision by Wednesday. In FdI it is not believed that in the end PiS will actually leave ECR but nothing is excluded at the moment. This would be one of the least advantageous hypotheses for the first Italian governing party, because it would considerably reduce the size of the group that Meloni chairs, which, losing the 20 of PiS, would thus go from 83 to 63 MEPs.

Forza Italia, an integral part of the European Popular Party, has no doubts about relocation. Throughout the electoral campaign, the national secretary of FI Antonio Tajani he has been in favor of opening a dialogue between the EPP and Meloni’s Conservatives, to the detriment of the Greens. Tajani reiterated this today, maintaining that the majority that will support Ursula von der Leyen’s new commission in the European Parliament will have to be solid and will therefore need the votes of FdI.

Von der Leyen had a first meeting with the Greens today. The negotiations have just started and any predictions about the vote of the 24 MEPs of FdI seem premature. Meloni, who left the door open by abstaining on the indication of von der Leyen in the European Council, leaves all options on the table while waiting to understand what role she can obtain for Italy in the new executive. The declared objective of the prime minister is to “do better” than what the PD did in 2019 and therefore obtain an important economic portfolio and a vice presidency of the commission for the Italian candidate who appears to be the minister for European Affairs, Raffaele Fitto. FdI’s vote in the European Parliament will depend entirely on how the negotiations go.