Violent protests against the Turkish army

Angry demonstrators have taken to the streets in many cities in northwestern Syria to protest against the Turkish military presence. In the Afrin region, angry Syrians tore down the Turkish flag on Monday, occupied Turkish facilities and attacked trucks at a border crossing with Turkey. Four people were shot dead and over 20 others injured in clashes with Turkish military police, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported on Tuesday.

The protests are primarily a reaction to anti-Syrian riots in Turkey. In Kayseri, Antalya, Kilis and other cities, Turks attacked Syrians and vandalized Syrian shops and cars. The police used water cannon and arrested dozens of rioters in Kayseri alone. The unrest was triggered by an incident in the central Turkish city of Kayseri on Sunday, in which a Syrian was accused of harassing a Syrian girl.

The unrest in northern Syria must also be seen against the backdrop of a possible reconciliation between Turkey and Syria’s dictator Bashar al-Assad. The prospect of normalizing relations is worrying both Syrian refugees in Turkey and Syrian opponents of the regime in northern Syria. If Turkey were to withdraw its troops from the region, the Syrian opposition groups would be defenseless against Assad’s soldiers.

Erdogan appears open to reconciliation with Assad

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday that there was no reason why Turkey should not normalize its relations with Syria. Two days earlier, Assad had announced that he was open to all initiatives to restore relations with Turkey, provided that the sovereignty of the Syrian state over its entire territory was recognized. He is obviously alluding to the continued presence of Turkish troops in northern Syria, which has been a thorn in his side for years.

Now, a normalization of relations is not imminent. A reconciliation between Erdogan and Assad would require Turkey to withdraw its troops from Afrin, Idlib and the area around al-Bab. However, a withdrawal of troops from Idlib would probably result in a new offensive by Assad on the last bastion of the Syrian regime opponents. A precarious ceasefire has prevailed there since Turkey repelled an offensive by Assad in spring 2020.

The Idlib region has been controlled by the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) for years. Turkey has stationed thousands of soldiers along the front line to the areas of the Assad regime. It also has troops in the Afrin region, around al-Bab and along the border in Kurdish northeastern Syria. It justifies the occupation by saying it is fighting terrorists, by which it means both the Islamic State (IS) and the Kurdish YPG militia.

The mood threatens to tip against Turkey

The Syrian Kurds have always seen the Turks as occupiers, but many Syrian Arabs have so far valued Turkey as a protective power against the Assad regime. Ankara has set up its own administration in the northwest and introduced the Turkish lira as the currency. There are even branches of the Turkish post office. But now the mood could change. Syria expert Charles Lister wrote that public rhetoric has abruptly turned against Turkey, which is now being described as an occupier, a threat and a racist state.

Meanwhile, things have been uncomfortable for Syrians in Turkey for some time. The country has taken in 3.6 million Syrian refugees since the start of the civil war in Syria 13 years ago. Many are now well integrated, have jobs and their own businesses. However, many Turks accuse them of living at the expense of the Turkish state, taking away their jobs and competing for housing. The mood is being further fuelled by the opposition.

Before the parliamentary and presidential elections in spring 2023, opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu campaigned on the issue. President Erdogan therefore accused the opposition on Monday of poisoning relations with the Syrians with their rhetoric. He strongly condemned the attacks on Syrian businesses. However, his government has long since intensified its actions against the Syrians and had refugees deported to Syria.

Normalizing relations with Damascus would allow some Syrians to be sent back home. However, reconciliation with Assad would be a 180-degree turnaround for Erdogan, who sided with the opposition after the civil war broke out in 2011 and called for Assad’s overthrow. However, 13 years later, the dictator is still in power. Many Arab states have already normalized their relations with Assad. It is probably only a matter of time before Turkey follows suit.