How Hungary’s EU Presidency Affects Europe

Hungary on July 1 assumed the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union (EU), shaping the bloc’s agenda for the next six months, before handing over to Poland on January 1, 2025.

The presidency of the EU Council is held by member states on a rotating basis, but this move is notable because Hungary under the leadership of Prime Minister Viktor Orban has tended to go against the general flow of the EU in recent years, even hindering major decisions of the bloc.

This has led many experts to worry that Hungary could take full advantage of its six-month EU presidency to make things more difficult for the union’s agenda.

Prime Minister Orban has come into the spotlight at a time when far-right parties in Europe have been on the rise in recent elections on the continent. Across the Atlantic, the prospect of a return to the White House by populist former US President Donald Trump is also growing.

Observers say the Hungarian Prime Minister has strong ties to Trump’s political movement and appears to be using this moment to send a message to right-wingers on both sides of the Atlantic: we’re in this together and we’re winning.

“Nationalist, sovereignist and Christian conservatives are on the rise across Europe. We are the worst nightmare for the Brussels bureaucracy,” Orban wrote on social network X earlier this year. “MEGA is a version of MAGA, Trump’s famous campaign slogan, but without the red hats.”

Mr. Orban and the EU have had a rocky relationship for many years, but he has particularly irritated alliance leaders in Brussels by using his veto of financial aid to Ukraine as leverage to force the EU to disburse billions of dollars in support for Hungary.

Daniel Freund, a German MEP and a vocal critic of Prime Minister Orban, recently wrote a letter calling for the suspension of Hungary’s rotating presidency for these reasons.

“It is time for the EU to stand up to a member that is constantly going against our most fundamental European principles and values,” he wrote. “Hungary currently does not meet the criteria for EU membership and therefore should not be allowed to represent the Union.”

Since Russia launched its campaign in Ukraine in late February 2022, the EU has begun to view Hungary as a “troubled ally”, expressing a friendly stance towards Moscow and opposing efforts to provide military support to Kiev, as well as failing to comply with the bloc’s rule of law standards. The European Court of Justice decided in mid-June to fine Hungary 200 million euros for failing to implement EU asylum law, a move that Budapest criticized as “unacceptable”.

Prime Minister Orban has repeatedly criticized the EU for “abusing its power” and seeking to build a “United States of Europe”, which has led to a growing cultural gap between Western and Eastern Europe. However, he has ruled out the possibility of withdrawing from the union, arguing that Hungary benefits from EU membership.

According to analysts, when it takes the EU presidency, Hungary is unlikely to change its stance, but will have to find a way to balance criticizing the EU with using the presidency to promote its interests.

At a press conference on Hungary’s presidency, Mr Orban’s spokesman Zoltan Kovacks said their aim was to “make a change in Brussels”. However, observers are sceptical that Hungary can make real changes in Europe, given the limited powers of the EU presidency and the nature of the current political situation.

The EU Council is one of the union’s three key institutions and usually brings together ministers from the 27 member states to approve legislation proposed by the European Commission.

The President of the Council can outline the agenda for the six-month term, chair most ministerial meetings, push through bills and represent the body in discussions with the European Parliament and the European Commission.

The 2009 Lisbon Treaty stripped the rotating presidency of the EU Council of many of its roles. The role of chairing and running the EU Council was transferred to the President of the Council for a two-and-a-half-year term, currently held by Charles Michel. The EU also created the post of High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy in 2009, who represents the EU in its external activities and chairs meetings with member states’ foreign ministers.

Therefore, the rotating presidency does not really hold decisive power in the bloc. Dorka Takacsy, a fellow at the Center for Euro-Atlantic Integration and Democracy and the German Marshall Fund, said that the rotating presidency is just a “theoretical role” that a country often uses to “promote itself”.

Observers also say Hungary is not necessarily looking to cause trouble for its rotating presidency. Sources familiar with the matter say Hungarian officials have been carefully preparing for the role.

Before taking office, Hungarian diplomats in Brussels laid out a relatively orthodox-looking agenda, including curbing immigration, improving competitiveness and strengthening the alliance’s defense capabilities.

Ukraine may not have to worry too much about Hungary’s rotating presidency, as Belgium has been trying to finalize everything to ensure that support for Kiev will continue in the future. The EU officially launched accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova on June 25, and approved the 14th package of sanctions against Russia the day before. Ukraine and the EU also managed to finalize a bilateral security agreement in June, before Hungary took over the presidency.

Speaking to the Ukrainian public during his first visit to Kiev since the outbreak of hostilities, Prime Minister Orban also pledged to support Ukraine “in every way possible” during its rotating EU presidency.

Takacsy warned that Budapest could still adopt a confrontational stance on Ukraine as before, but it would be difficult to carry out actions that would cause “irreparable damage” as the rotating president of the EU Council.

In addition, observers say that Hungary takes over the rotating presidency a few weeks after the European Parliament elections, which means that any legislative work will have to wait until after the new European Commission is formed. However, the rotating presidency usually has no say in negotiations on the composition of the commission.

The EU’s executive body, which is also the sole body responsible for legislative initiatives, could take months to form, reducing Hungary’s ability to intervene in the bloc’s legislative process.

“Even if Hungary wanted to block things or steer discussions one way or another, they wouldn’t have much room to intervene in the EU’s legislative process,” said Eric Maurice, a policy analyst at the European Policy Centre think tank in Brussels.