France: Will The far right slow down its advance or will it achieve an absolute majority

On the last day of campaigning for the second round of the legislative elections in France, the possibility of the far-right National Rally does not achieve an absolute majority is emerging in the latest polls. He would obtain a relative majority while the Republican opposition seeks a government of convergence, which excludes the extremes of RN and La France Insoumise, considered ultra-left and anti-Semitic.

But Xenophobic violence has taken over the campaign. There are racist incidents against women and children from minorities all over the country by Le Pen militants. “It’s over. The National Front is here,” they repeat, threatening to throw them out of France.

Residents and shopkeepers in central Paris fear violent demonstrations on Sunday evening after the second round, especially if the far right comes to power. 5,000 police and gendarmes are to be deployed in the capital and on the outskirts. All businesses in the centre have boarded up their windows for fear of violence and looting, starting with McDonalds restaurants in the French capital.

Police are deployed daily at Place de la République, Bastille and Nation for fear of unauthorized protests. In Paris, sirens, unmarked police cars with their blue lights and a police car can be heard all day long. climate of tension and unrest in the population.

According to an Ipsos-Talan poll for Radio France and France Télévisions published on Friday, the National Rally (RN) is in first place. But it will not obtain an absolute majority at the end of the second legislative elections on Sunday.

The far-right party and its allies are expected to win between 175 and 205 seats. The New Popular Front could win between 145 and 175 seats, while the ruling Ensemble could send between 118 and 148 deputies to the National Assembly. The Republicans and several right-wing candidates would win between 57 and 67 seats.

According to another survey by the conservative newspaper Le Figaro, The RN continues its decline, trapped by the left and the Macron regime.

Two days before the election, turnout on Friday reached its highest level ever measured by the daily Ifop-Fiducial survey for Le Figaro, LCI and Sud Radio.

What will the National Assembly look like the day after the second round of legislative elections? If the prospect of a large parliamentary base for Le Pen and its allies has tormented political teams in recent weeks, What emerges is the scenario of an ungovernable France at the end of the campaign.

A sign that voters have fully understood the historic nature of the election. Turnout is estimated at 69% (+1 since Thursday). And it is close to the level of the legislative elections of June 1997 (71.08%), called for the “failed” dissolution of Jacques Chirac. This is what the latest wave of the daily Ifop-Fiducial poll for Le Figaro, LCI and Sud Radio reveals on Friday, which provides final projections of seats, without voting intentions at the national level.

Far from consolidating its first-round results, the “union of the right”, led by the National Rally and reinforced by the “Ciutists” who fled the Republicans, would only win between 170 and 210 seats in the Lower House. This is a projection clearly lower than that made on the evening of June 30 (between 240 and 270), at the end of the first round.

At the end of a week marked by cross-party withdrawals of left-wing or Macronist candidates, who came third in their constituencies, most of the triangular elections turned into duels. New battles that “the RN would largely lose” on July 7, anticipates the director of the information and politics department of Ifop, François Kraus.

Gathered under the banner of the New Popular Front, socialists, rebels from La France Insoumise, ecologists and communists would form the second group at the Palais Bourbon. Having started campaigning with 149 outgoing elected officials, The left would benefit from a boostwith a contingent of between 155 and 185 seats. However, these projections are well below those made at the end of last week (180 to 200). It should also be noted that the “miscellaneous left” label would win between 10 and 18 deputies.

Still reeling from the presidential decision, Macron has saved face by making the most of the reconstituted “republican front” in a context of fear of an RN government. Launched between the two rounds in the hope of retaining between 60 and 90 deputies, the presidential field could double these gloomy forecasts and obtain between 120 and 150 seats.

Although it was severely shaken by Eric Ciotti’s decision to join forces with the RN, the right could also limit the damage and gather between 50 and 65 deputies. That is, three more elected officials, in the high range, than the “turncoat” group from LR. A level that, according to Ifop, is being considered due to the “good local presence” of the Republicans.

The government wants to guarantee governability, Whatever happens, if there is no absolute majority for the RG, a parliamentary majority must be formed with other parties, as happens in other countries. But in France there is no such tradition of coalition, as in other European countries. The risk if there is ungovernability is that the Le Penists will try to force the resignation of President Emmanuel Macron and bring forward the presidential elections, scheduled for 2027.