The United Nations has declared that the world’s population will reach peaking in the mid-2080s, with about 10.3 billion people, and then decline slightly to a level much lower than predicted a decade ago. The current population of 8.2 billion will rise to that peak over the next 60 years, and then decline to 10.2 billion by the end of the century, it is stated in a report entitled “World Population Prospects 2024”.
The report says the world’s population in 2100 will be 6 percent smaller, or 700 million fewer, than predicted in June 2013. “The demographic landscape has evolved dramatically in recent years,” said Li Junhua, UN under-secretary-general for economic and social affairs. Li Junhua said the unexpected population spike stems from several factors, including declining fertility levels in some of the world’s major countries, particularly China.
According to the expert, this lower peak will arrive even earlier than previously calculated and this is a sign of hope for the world struggling against global warming: fewer humans, which leads to less aggregate consumption, would mean less pressure on the environment.
“However, slower population growth will not eliminate the need to reduce the average impact attributable to the activities of each individual person,” the official said. More than a quarter, or 28% of the world’s population now lives in one of 63 countries or areas where the population has already peaked, including China, Russia, Japan and Germany, the report says.
Nearly 50 more countries are expected to join this group in the next 30 years, including Brazil, Iran and Türkiye. But population growth will continue in more than 120 countries beyond 2054. According to the UN, these include India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the United States. The increase in global life expectancy – interrupted by the Covid pandemic – has resumed, with an average of 73.3 years of longevity in 2024. In 2054, the average will be 77.4 years. So the world’s population will become increasingly gray. According to the study’s forecasts, by the end of 2070, the number of people aged 65 or over will be 2.2 billion, surpassing that of those under 18.