Ukraine needs to deploy Patriots closer to the front line to counter Russia’s three-ton glide bombs, but that would put these precious systems at risk.
Glide bombs have caused problems for Ukrainian forces for much of the conflict. The number of guided bomb attacks by the Russian military has increased recently, especially around the northeastern Kharkov front.
The Russian Defense Ministry announced in March the start of mass production of the three-ton FAB-3000 bomb, which carries 1,400 kg of high explosive. The bomb can be converted into a glide bomb by attaching the Unified Guidance Module and Lifting Wings (UMPK), which adds a GPS guidance system and folding wings, thereby increasing its accuracy and range.
The FAB-3000 glide bomb first entered combat use in June and has been used regularly on the battlefield by the Russian military since then. Videos shared on social media show that the bomb, dropped from a Su-34 fighter bomber, has terrible destructive power and a large blast radius, enough to destroy everything in its area of impact.
The moment the Russian army dropped FAB-3000 bombs on the Ukrainian command post in the village of New York in Donetsk province in a video posted on June 30. Video: Telegram/The_Wrong_Side
The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warned last month that the appearance of the FAB-3000 glide bomb on the battlefield was a “significant change” that could cause Ukraine to suffer major damage to its military and civilian infrastructure.
Intercepting the FAB-3000 glide bomb is no easy task. Justin Bronk, an expert on technology and air power at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), said Russia had modified the guidance kit of the FAB-3000 glide bomb to make it highly resistant to GPS jamming, making it virtually impossible for Ukraine to counter with electronic warfare.
Even if not immune to jamming, glide bombs like the FAB-3000 are still very scary. Once dropped from an aircraft, they fly very fast, are difficult to detect by radar, and follow unpredictable trajectories, making them difficult to intercept with anti-aircraft weapons.
The Ukrainian military cannot afford to waste its limited number of anti-aircraft missiles on trying to intercept a glide bomb in flight, which has a low success rate.
Therefore, Kiev’s only option was to shoot down the enemy’s Su-34 fighter bombers before the bombs were dropped, or attack them before they could take off.
FAB-3000 bomb. Photo: Ministry of National Defense that
To be able to shoot down the Su-34 in the air, the Ukrainian military will have to bring its most modern air defense systems closer to the front line.
The US-made MIM-104 Patriot complex is considered the best weapon for this mission. Patriot costs about $1.1 billion per complex, the PAC-2 version uses interceptor missiles with explosive fragmentation warheads, while the latest PAC-3 variant is equipped with more advanced collision-kill technology. Patriot’s radar has an operating range of about 150 km.
Patriot has proven its combat effectiveness in the Ukraine conflict. Kiev announced in early July that all Kinzhal hypersonic missiles launched by Russia at its capital had been intercepted since Patriot air defense systems were deployed there.
A US officer previously confirmed that this complex was used by the Ukrainian military in January to shoot down an A-50U early warning aircraft, a weapon nicknamed “the eye of the sky” by Russia with a price tag of 350 million USD.
However, Ukraine only has a few Patriot batteries and not many missiles to go with them. “These are valuable assets that cannot be wasted, so deploying them closer to the front line and within range of Russian fire is a big gamble,” said Jake Epstein, a commentator for the Business Insider identify.
George Barros, a Russia expert at ISW, said there was an unspoken rule that the Ukrainian military must destroy Russian artillery that could threaten the Patriots before moving them forward. “It’s very risky to deploy such advanced equipment so close to the front line,” Barros said.
President Zelensky stands next to a Patriot air defense system at a base in Germany in June. Photo: AFP
The remaining possible option for Ukraine is to preemptively attack air bases located in Russian territory, where Su-34 fighter bombers are stationed, thereby preventing enemy FAB-3000 glide bomb raids “from the beginning”.
The Ukrainian military has long used this tactic, but has limited it to attacks with long-range domestic suicide drones that are not very lethal. The tactic would be more effective if restrictions on the use of Western weapons against Ukraine were lifted, experts say.
Specifically, they believe that the US is “blocking the way” by refusing to allow Ukraine to fire ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles at Russian territory. Washington has so far only allowed Kiev to use shorter-range weapons to attack Moscow’s forces near the border between the two countries.
Using ATACMS missiles with a range of 300 km to “raid Russian air bases would not completely eliminate the threat, but could force Russian fighters to take off from more distant bases, thereby reducing the effectiveness of the raids,” Bronk said.
The US 17th Field Artillery Brigade fires an ATACMS missile from a HIMARS gun in July 2023. Photo: US Army
Ukrainian President Volodymy Zelensky has also repeatedly called on the US to lift all restrictions on Kiev’s use of long-range weapons such as ATACMS missiles to attack Russian territory, arguing that this is necessary to limit the threat from Moscow’s guided bombs.
In the context of the increasingly popular use of the FAB-3000 glide bomb with great destructive power on the battlefield, Mr. Zelensky’s call is more urgent than ever.
“The Russian air force is dropping more than 100 guided bombs on Ukrainian cities, villages and frontline positions every day and we need reliable protection against them,” Mr Zelensky said on July 21. Ukraine needs to “destroy the means of carrying these bombs, wherever they are.”