The end of the Maduro regime has never been closer, at least at the polls

This Sunday, the long-awaited twist in the presidential elections could finally take place. A cohesive opposition around Maria Corina Machado and the presidential candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutiawould be about to make a reality what has seemed impossible for so many years: removing Chavismo from power.

Expectations are high. Nearly a dozen polls give the opposition candidate an overwhelming advantage – from 20 to 35 points difference – over Nicolás Maduro. “In other elections the difference was much smaller, even a statistical error, but now for the first time they see the real danger of losing,” Venezuelan political analyst Luis Nunes, based in our country, tells this newspaper.

But doubts and fears continue to surface. Will victory be achieved at the polls? Will the regime respect the will of the people? Will there be, once again, deaths and injuries in the streets?

Venezuelans are used to the government’s tricks and know that it will not accept defeat easily. So, the outlook for Sunday is one of total uncertainty. Maduro has already anticipated this and warned of a “bloodbath,” a phrase that has already cost him the distance of presidents who were never critical of him, such as the Brazilian Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the Chilean Gabriel Boric or the former Argentine president Alberto Fernández, who was even prevented from being an observer in the elections.

“The Maduro government is very worn out when it comes to support in Latin America. In the same region, it is questioned by leaders who are closer to its ideology,” Carolina Galindo Hernández, a professor at the School of Human Sciences at the University of Rosario in Bogotá, told El Comercio.

“Those threats no longer frighten anyone. We are no longer afraid,” said María Corina Machado firmly, the figure who has made it possible for the opposition to remain united and who was determined not to let down her guard, despite being disqualified and the regime doing everything possible to not accept the candidacy of the Democratic Unitary Platform (PUD), now supported by Ambassador González Urrutia. The diplomat, who with his calm and conciliatory speech would have been an impossible candidate in other circumstances for an electoral race of this calibre, has been able to endorse the majority support that Machado achieved in the primaries.

“The Venezuelan opposition is clearer than ever in its objective of regime change. We have seen other leaders in the past, such as Henrique Capriles, Leopoldo López or Juan Guaidó, but we must recognize the value of this resurgence of María Corina Machado,” Galindo believes.

“But there is also the exhaustion of the Venezuelan population itself in the face of a model that has destroyed families, that has driven millions of valuable people out of the country, that has destroyed the human capital of two generations, and above all that has done much damage to the idea of ​​a redistributive model as an alternative to capitalism,” he adds.

Participation will be key

Precisely because of Venezuelans’ desire for change, the massive participation expected and the uncertainty surrounding the results, the eyes of the world are once again focused on the Caribbean country.

Pollsters estimate that the turnout (voting is voluntary) will be between 65% and 75%. As France 24 reports, the electoral register in Venezuela is 21.6 million citizens. Following the massive migration of recent years, the number is estimated to have been reduced to 17 million. With an estimated turnout of 77%, that would be equivalent to around 13 million voters.

The opposition has therefore focused on encouraging participation, while the regime prefers high absenteeism to reduce the gap.

“We are talking about a totalitarian system and they can change the voting centres at the last minute, put up barriers to prevent people from going to vote. The international observers, who are few, do not have sufficient freedom. So we see a Maduro who will not accept the results no matter what happens,” says Nunes.

Based on this plan, Chavismo has set up many barriers to ensure that the number of Venezuelans abroad voting is minimal. Of the 7.7 million Venezuelans who have left in recent years, only 69,000 will be able to vote. A ridiculous figure, but one that helps the regime since the majority of migrants are opponents.

“One of the most important issues in these elections has to do with the Venezuelan diaspora. There is a fear that, if Chavismo remains in power, the diaspora will increase,” says Galindo. According to a survey by ORC Consultores, nearly 18% of Venezuelans would leave the country if the candidate of their choice does not win.

Aces up the sleeve

But even though Machado repeats like a mantra that fear is over, it is a fact that the regime will have several alternatives ready to avoid conceding defeat, if the polls confirm it. They have already done so before, too.

The campaign has not been free of repression. The NGO Foro Penal reported that 102 people linked to González Urrutia’s campaign were arrested, while Machado’s head of security, Milciades Ávila, was violently detained in mid-July. In addition, citizens who provided accommodation, food or facilities to Machado and González Urrutia on their tours of the country ended up being sanctioned.

“They have been deceiving people for 25 years and they have carried out a campaign of fear and intimidation,” says Nunes. “They have the upper hand, because they have all the powers of the State in their hands, including the Armed Forces,” he explains.

It is precisely the loyalty of the military to the regime that has allowed Maduro to remain in power despite everything. In recent years, there has even been talk of links to drug trafficking and shady dealings that allow this symbiosis between the regime and the armed forces. And everyone knows that if the military decides to step aside, Maduro will have no other alternative than to leave the government.

“We are in the realm of speculation, because there is total uncertainty, but scenarios are being considered for Maduro to leave the country, under conditions that protect him judicially and politically. I do not believe that he and his leadership will hand over power so easily if they do not have guarantees,” says Galindo. For this reason, the questioned Venezuelan president has dedicated himself to strengthening his relations with Russia, China, Iran and Turkey.

Regardless of the outcome, these elections will be a turning point for Chavismo, which will definitely not be able to remain the same. As Nunes concludes: “Now there is a different Venezuela. No longer the same divided, defeated and repressed country. Whatever happens, the regime knows that the country has already changed.”